Frosinone vs Sassuolo preview
In the Serie A fixture between Frosinone and Sassuolo, the 1X2 probabilities show Frosinone at 45%, Sassuolo at 29%, and a draw at 26%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, with a 10% chance, indicating a competitive match. Frosinone has an expected goals figure of 2.26, while Sassuolo sits at 1.04, suggesting Frosinone may have the upper hand.
The model predicts a high likelihood for Over 2.5 goals at 64% and both teams to score at 60%. However, Frosinone's recent form of W-D-W-D-W-L could be disrupted by Sassuolo, who has shown resilience with a recent record of L-W-D-D-W-L. This unpredictability could affect the expected outcomes.
Why this pick: Frosinone vs Sassuolo
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Frosinone 10, Sassuolo 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
Frosinone vs Sassuolo: model vs market
| Source | Frosinone | Draw | Sassuolo |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 63% | 22% | 14% |
| Market | 39% | 27% | 34% |
| Published | 45% | 26% | 29% |
| Edge | +24% | -5% | -19% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.26 vs 1.04.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
- The market prices Frosinone below the model: +24.1 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.53, recorded — the top price across the 11 books we record, each at its own last update.
Frosinone vs Sassuolo odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Frosinone, 22 snapshots since 2026-10-03.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Frosinone | 2.42 | 2.42 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 3.43 | 3.48 | +0.04 |
| Sassuolo | 2.90 | 2.80 | -0.10 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Frosinone and Sassuolo expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.31
- Attack rating (Frosinone / Sassuolo)
- 1.54 / 1.32
- Defence rating (Frosinone / Sassuolo)
- 0.67 / 1.13
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Frosinone vs Sassuolo score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Frosinone goals. Columns: Sassuolo goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Frosinone vs Sassuolo goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 60%
- No goals (0–0)
- 5%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Frosinone vs Sassuolo
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Frosinone | 45% | 2.22 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.85 | |
| Sassuolo | 29% | 3.46 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 64% | 1.56 |
| Under 2.5 | 36% | 2.79 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 60% | 1.67 |
| No | 40% | 2.49 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Frosinone or draw) | 71% | 1.41 |
| 12 (either side) | 74% | 1.35 | |
| X2 (draw or Sassuolo) | 55% | 1.82 | |
| Handicap -1 | Frosinone win by 2+ | 42% | 2.38 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Frosinone and Sassuolo recent form
Frosinone
3W 2D 1L
Sassuolo
2W 2D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Frosinone at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-0-1
- Win rate
- 67%
- Goals for / match
- 1.67
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 3
- They have won 3 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
Sassuolo away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-1-2
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 1.33
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 3
League matches this season before kick-off: Frosinone at home only, Sassuolo away only.
Frosinone vs Sassuolo head-to-head
Last 9 meetings: Frosinone 2 · draws 3 · Sassuolo 4.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-02 | Sassuolo | 1-1 | Frosinone | Coppa Italia |
| 2025-05-13 | Sassuolo | 0-1 | Frosinone | Serie B |
| 2024-12-14 | Frosinone | 1-2 | Sassuolo | Serie B |
| 2024-03-09 | Sassuolo | 1-0 | Frosinone | Serie A |
| 2023-09-17 | Frosinone | 4-2 | Sassuolo | Serie A |
| 2019-05-05 | Sassuolo | 2-2 | Frosinone | Serie A |
| 2018-12-16 | Frosinone | 0-2 | Sassuolo | Serie A |
| 2016-05-08 | Frosinone | 0-1 | Sassuolo | Serie A |
| 2016-01-06 | Sassuolo | 2-2 | Frosinone | Serie A |
Before and after this match
- Frosinone, previous: Napoli vs Frosinone prediction
- Sassuolo, previous: Sassuolo v AC Milan analysis