Updated

Süper Lig · Matchday 7

Rizespor vs Fenerbahçe

· Çaykur Didi Stadyumu, Rize· Referee O. Ergun

Full time0 – 3

Alin prediction was Fenerbahçe to win

Cblended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 1 – 2

10% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
RizesporDrawFenerbahçe

Rizespor vs Fenerbahçe: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceRizesporDrawFenerbahçe
Model19%24%57%
Market21%24%56%
Published20%24%56%
Edge0%0%0%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.94 vs 1.05.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Rizespor vs Fenerbahçe odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Fenerbahçe, 13 snapshots since 2026-10-04.

Opened 1.70Now 1.69 -0.01
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Rizespor4.374.50+0.13
Draw3.853.98+0.13
Fenerbahçe1.701.69-0.01

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Rizespor and Fenerbahçe expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.05Rizespor
1.94Fenerbahçe
Total expected goals
2.99
Attack rating (Rizespor / Fenerbahçe)
1.01 / 1.52
Defence rating (Rizespor / Fenerbahçe)
1.05 / 0.69

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Rizespor vs Fenerbahçe score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 6.1% 8.8% 9.5% 6.1% 4.6% 1 4.3% 11.3% 9.9% 6.4% 4.8% 2 2.8% 5.4% 5.2% 3.4% 2.5% 3 1.0% 1.9% 1.8% 1.2% 0.9% 4+ 0.3% 0.6% 0.6% 0.4% 0.3%

Rows: Rizespor goals. Columns: Fenerbahçe goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Rizespor vs Fenerbahçe goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 94%
Over 1.5 81%
Over 2.5 57%
Over 3.5 35%
Both teams to score
57%
No goals (0–0)
6%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Rizespor vs Fenerbahçe

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Rizespor20%4.89
Draw24%4.22
Fenerbahçe56%1.79
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.557%1.75
Under 2.543%2.34
Both teams to scoreYes57%1.77
No43%2.31
Double chance1X (Rizespor or draw)44%2.26
12 (either side)76%1.31
X2 (draw or Fenerbahçe)80%1.26
Handicap -1Fenerbahçe win by 2+34%2.91
Push (exactly one goal)23%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Rizespor and Fenerbahçe recent form

Rizespor 3W 1D 2L
Fenerbahçe 3W 2D 1L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Rizespor at home

Record (W-D-L)
0-0-2
Win rate
0%
Goals for / match
0.00
Goals against / match
1.50
Clean sheets
0 of 2
  • They have won 3 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
  • 50% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Fenerbahçe away

Record (W-D-L)
1-1-1
Win rate
33%
Goals for / match
1.00
Goals against / match
0.67
Clean sheets
2 of 3
  • They have won 3 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 2.7 goals per match.
  • They average 4.3 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
  • They have kept 3 clean sheets in 6 matches.
  • 50% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: Rizespor at home only, Fenerbahçe away only.

Injuries & availability

Rizespor absences

  • K. Alikulov knee injury

Fenerbahçe absences

  • J. Oosterwolde achilles tendon injury
  • M. Muldur knee injury

Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.

Expected lineups

Rizespor lineup · 4-1-4-1

  1. 75 Yahia Fofana
  2. 17 Zakaria Ariss
  3. 93 Modibo Sagnan
  4. 4 Attila Mocsi
  5. 54 Mithat Pala
  6. 14 Taylan Antalyalı
  7. 23 Ahmed Kutucu
  8. 20 Qazim Laci
  9. 10 Ibrahim Olawoyin
  10. 11 Adedire Mebude
  11. 9 Ali Sowe

Bench: Tayyip Talha Sanuç, Moussa Diakité, Umut Erdem, Siaka Bakayoko, Gennaro Borrelli, Zafer Görgen, Taha Şahin, Can Bozdoğan, Iustin Doicaru, Emrecan Bulut

Fenerbahçe lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 31 Ederson
  2. 3 Archie Brown
  3. 15 Nathan Aké
  4. 37 Milan Škriniar
  5. 27 Nélson Semedo
  6. 6 Mattéo Guendouzi
  7. 91 N'Golo Kanté
  8. 7 Kerem Aktürkoğlu
  9. 10 Marco Asensio
  10. 11 Mason Greenwood
  11. 19 Vedat Muriqi

Bench: İsmail Yüksek, Mert Hakan Yandaş, Romelu Lukaku, İrfan Can Kahveci, Kojo Peprah Oppong, Levent Mercan, Bartuğ Elmaz, Mert Günok, Dorgeles Nene, Oğuz Aydın

Rizespor vs Fenerbahçe head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: Rizespor 0 · draws 1 · Fenerbahçe 9.

RizesporDrawsFenerbahçe
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-04-17Fenerbahçe2-2RizesporSüper Lig
2025-11-23Rizespor2-5FenerbahçeSüper Lig
2025-02-02Fenerbahçe3-2RizesporSüper Lig
2024-08-25Rizespor0-5FenerbahçeSüper Lig
2024-02-17Rizespor1-3FenerbahçeSüper Lig
2023-10-01Fenerbahçe5-0RizesporSüper Lig
2023-01-19Fenerbahçe2-1RizesporTürkiye Kupası
2022-04-22Rizespor0-6FenerbahçeSüper Lig
2021-12-05Fenerbahçe4-0RizesporSüper Lig
2021-01-30Fenerbahçe1-0RizesporSüper Lig

Other Matchday 7 fixtures

Before and after this match