Rizespor vs Fenerbahçe: model vs market
| Source | Rizespor | Draw | Fenerbahçe |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 19% | 24% | 57% |
| Market | 21% | 24% | 55% |
| Published | 21% | 24% | 55% |
| Edge | -2% | 0% | +2% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.93 vs 1.05.
- The market prices Fenerbahçe below the model: +2.3 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.75, recorded — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update.
Rizespor vs Fenerbahçe odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Fenerbahçe, 6 snapshots since 2026-10-04.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rizespor | 4.37 | 4.37 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 3.85 | 3.85 | +0.00 |
| Fenerbahçe | 1.70 | 1.70 | +0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Rizespor and Fenerbahçe expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.98
- Attack rating (Rizespor / Fenerbahçe)
- 1.01 / 1.52
- Defence rating (Rizespor / Fenerbahçe)
- 1.05 / 0.69
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Rizespor vs Fenerbahçe score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Rizespor goals. Columns: Fenerbahçe goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Rizespor vs Fenerbahçe goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 57%
- No goals (0–0)
- 6%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Rizespor vs Fenerbahçe
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Rizespor | 21% | 4.82 |
| Draw | 24% | 4.15 | |
| Fenerbahçe | 55% | 1.81 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 57% | 1.75 |
| Under 2.5 | 43% | 2.34 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 57% | 1.77 |
| No | 43% | 2.31 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Rizespor or draw) | 45% | 2.23 |
| 12 (either side) | 76% | 1.32 | |
| X2 (draw or Fenerbahçe) | 79% | 1.26 | |
| Handicap -1 | Fenerbahçe win by 2+ | 34% | 2.92 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 4 |  |
200% first deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Rizespor and Fenerbahçe recent form
Rizespor
3W 1D 2L
Fenerbahçe
3W 2D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Rizespor at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-0-2
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.50
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 2
- They have won 3 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- 45% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Fenerbahçe away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-1
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 0.67
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 3
- They have won 2 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
League matches this season before kick-off: Rizespor at home only, Fenerbahçe away only.
Rizespor vs Fenerbahçe head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Rizespor 0 · draws 1 · Fenerbahçe 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-17 | Fenerbahçe | 2-2 | Rizespor | Süper Lig |
| 2025-11-23 | Rizespor | 2-5 | Fenerbahçe | Süper Lig |
Other Matchday 7 fixtures
- Galatasaray vs Kasımpaşa 2026-10-09
- Gençlerbirliği S.K. vs Amed — team news & stats 2026-10-10
- Alanyaspor v Erzurumspor FK — match page 2026-10-10
- Samsunspor vs Trabzonspor 2026-10-10
- Konyaspor vs Başakşehir — team news & stats 2026-10-11
- Gaziantep FK v Çorum FK — match page 2026-10-11
- Beşiktaş v Kocaelispor — match page 2026-10-11
- Eyüpspor vs Göztepe — team news & stats 2026-10-12