Samsunspor vs Trabzonspor preview
Samsunspor hosts Trabzonspor with a model 1X2 probability of 28% for a home win, 26% for a draw, and 46% for an away victory. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, with a 9% chance. The market indicates a strong possibility for Over 2.5 goals at 62% and both teams to score at 64%.
Samsunspor's recent form shows four losses in five matches, while Trabzonspor has won three of their last six. Expected goals suggest Samsunspor will score 1.43 and Trabzonspor 1.75. The confidence grade is C, meaning the predictions are based on a blend of probabilities and market odds. A low scoring game or a draw could challenge the expected outcomes.
Samsunspor vs Trabzonspor: model vs market
| Source | Samsunspor | Draw | Trabzonspor |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 31% | 25% | 44% |
| Market | 27% | 26% | 47% |
| Published | 28% | 26% | 46% |
| Edge | +3% | 0% | -3% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.75 vs 1.43.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.06, recorded — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update.
Samsunspor vs Trabzonspor odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Trabzonspor, 6 snapshots since 2026-10-04.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Samsunspor | 3.40 | 3.38 | -0.02 |
| Draw | 3.60 | 3.60 | +0.00 |
| Trabzonspor | 1.97 | 1.97 | +0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Samsunspor and Trabzonspor expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.18
- Attack rating (Samsunspor / Trabzonspor)
- 1.01 / 1.15
- Defence rating (Samsunspor / Trabzonspor)
- 1.26 / 0.95
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Samsunspor vs Trabzonspor score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Samsunspor goals. Columns: Trabzonspor goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Samsunspor vs Trabzonspor goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 64%
- No goals (0–0)
- 5%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Samsunspor vs Trabzonspor
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Samsunspor | 28% | 3.55 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.91 | |
| Trabzonspor | 46% | 2.16 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 62% | 1.63 |
| Under 2.5 | 38% | 2.60 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 64% | 1.57 |
| No | 36% | 2.77 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Samsunspor or draw) | 54% | 1.86 |
| 12 (either side) | 74% | 1.34 | |
| X2 (draw or Trabzonspor) | 72% | 1.39 | |
| Handicap -1 | Trabzonspor win by 2+ | 24% | 4.14 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 4 |  |
200% first deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Samsunspor and Trabzonspor recent form
Samsunspor
1W 1D 4L
Trabzonspor
3W 0D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Samsunspor at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-1-2
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 1.33
- Goals against / match
- 3.33
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 3
- They have won 1 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
Trabzonspor away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-1-2
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.67
- Goals against / match
- 1.33
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 3
- They have won 2 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- 42% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Samsunspor at home only, Trabzonspor away only.
Samsunspor vs Trabzonspor head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Samsunspor 0 · draws 1 · Trabzonspor 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-07 | Samsunspor | 0-3 | Trabzonspor | Süper Lig |
| 2025-08-31 | Trabzonspor | 1-1 | Samsunspor | Süper Lig |
Other Matchday 7 fixtures
- Galatasaray vs Kasımpaşa 2026-10-09
- Gençlerbirliği S.K. vs Amed — team news & stats 2026-10-10
- Alanyaspor v Erzurumspor FK — match page 2026-10-10
- Rizespor vs Fenerbahçe 2026-10-10
- Konyaspor vs Başakşehir — team news & stats 2026-10-11
- Gaziantep FK v Çorum FK — match page 2026-10-11
- Beşiktaş v Kocaelispor — match page 2026-10-11
- Eyüpspor vs Göztepe — team news & stats 2026-10-12