Samsunspor vs Trabzonspor: model vs market
| Source | Samsunspor | Draw | Trabzonspor |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 31% | 25% | 44% |
| Market | 26% | 26% | 48% |
| Published | 27% | 26% | 47% |
| Edge | +1% | 0% | -1% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.74 vs 1.43.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
Samsunspor vs Trabzonspor odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Trabzonspor, 13 snapshots since 2026-10-04.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Samsunspor | 3.40 | 3.53 | +0.13 |
| Draw | 3.60 | 3.60 | +0.00 |
| Trabzonspor | 1.97 | 1.93 | -0.04 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Samsunspor and Trabzonspor expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.17
- Attack rating (Samsunspor / Trabzonspor)
- 1.00 / 1.15
- Defence rating (Samsunspor / Trabzonspor)
- 1.26 / 0.95
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Samsunspor vs Trabzonspor score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Samsunspor goals. Columns: Trabzonspor goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Samsunspor vs Trabzonspor goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 64%
- No goals (0–0)
- 5%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Samsunspor vs Trabzonspor
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Samsunspor | 27% | 3.66 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.90 | |
| Trabzonspor | 47% | 2.13 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 61% | 1.63 |
| Under 2.5 | 39% | 2.59 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 64% | 1.57 |
| No | 36% | 2.76 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Samsunspor or draw) | 53% | 1.89 |
| 12 (either side) | 74% | 1.34 | |
| X2 (draw or Trabzonspor) | 73% | 1.38 | |
| Handicap -1 | Trabzonspor win by 2+ | 24% | 4.16 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Samsunspor and Trabzonspor recent form
Samsunspor
1W 1D 4L
Trabzonspor
3W 0D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Samsunspor at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-1-2
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 1.33
- Goals against / match
- 3.33
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 3
- They have won 1 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They average 1.3 goals per game at home against 0.7 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 6 matches.
Trabzonspor away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-1-2
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.67
- Goals against / match
- 1.33
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 3
- They have won 3 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 2.2 goals per match.
- They average 3.7 goals per game at home against 0.7 on the road.
- 44% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Samsunspor at home only, Trabzonspor away only.
Injuries & availability
Samsunspor absences
-
J. Assoumou
muscle injury
Trabzonspor absences
-
A. Batagov
knee injury
-
O. Yokuslu
knee injury
-
R. Malinovskyi
knee injury
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.
Expected lineups
Samsunspor lineup · 4-2-3-1
- 1 Okan Kocuk
- 17 Logi Tomasson
- 34 Gabriele Guarino
- 22 Yunus Emre Çift
- 2 Josafat Mendes
- 4 Elliot Watt
- 5 Celil Yüksel
- 11 Emre Kılınç
- 42 Antoine Sekongo
- 10 Tanguy Coulibaly
- 18 Mohamed Bayo
Bench: Igor Drapiński, Elayis Tavsan, Samed Onur, Fatih Kaya, Strahinja Eraković, Oskar Øhlenschlaeger, Yalçın Kayan, Bilal Bayazit, Haluk Mustafa Tan, Afonso Sousa
Trabzonspor lineup · 4-2-3-1
- 24 André Onana
- 19 Mustafa Eskihellaç
- 15 Stefan Savić
- 27 Chibuike Nwaiwu
- 20 Wagner Pina
- 6 Fabinho
- 57 Melih Kabasakal
- 58 Aral Şimşir
- 7 Ernest Muçi
- 10 Mohamed Salah
- 9 Franculino Djú
Bench: Ahmet Doğan Yıldırım, Samet Akaydın, Ozan Tufan, Tim Jabol-Folcarelli, Paul Onuachu, Cenk Özkaçar, Sidny Lopes Cabral, Cihan Çanak, Noah Saviolo, Metehan Mimaroğlu
Samsunspor vs Trabzonspor head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Samsunspor 3 · draws 3 · Trabzonspor 4.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-23 | Samsunspor | 0-0 | Trabzonspor | Türkiye Kupası |
| 2026-02-07 | Samsunspor | 0-3 | Trabzonspor | Süper Lig |
| 2025-08-31 | Trabzonspor | 1-1 | Samsunspor | Süper Lig |
| 2025-05-25 | Trabzonspor | 2-2 | Samsunspor | Süper Lig |
| 2025-01-04 | Samsunspor | 2-1 | Trabzonspor | Süper Lig |
| 2024-05-04 | Samsunspor | 3-1 | Trabzonspor | Süper Lig |
| 2024-01-11 | Trabzonspor | 2-1 | Samsunspor | Süper Lig |
| 2022-12-21 | Trabzonspor | 3-0 | Samsunspor | Türkiye Kupası |
| 2020-08-29 | Samsunspor | 2-1 | Trabzonspor | Friendlies Clubs |
| 2012-01-15 | Trabzonspor | 4-0 | Samsunspor | Süper Lig |
Other Matchday 7 fixtures
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- Alanyaspor v Erzurumspor FK — match page 2026-10-10
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- Konyaspor vs Başakşehir — team news & stats 2026-10-11
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Before and after this match
- Samsunspor, next: Kasımpaşa – Samsunspor, 2026-10-18
- Trabzonspor, next: KuPS vs Trabzonspor prediction