Laci vs Egnatia Rrogozhinë Prediction & Betting Tips 11/10/2026

Laci vs Egnatia Rrogozhinë: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Laci	Draw	Egnatia Rrogozhinë
Model	28%	24%	48%
Market	—	—	—
Published	28%	24%	48%
Edge	—	—	—

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.99 vs 1.49.
Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

Laci and Egnatia Rrogozhinë expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.49Laci

1.99Egnatia Rrogozhinë

Total expected goals: 3.48
Attack rating (Laci / Egnatia Rrogozhinë): 1.11 / 1.61
Defence rating (Laci / Egnatia Rrogozhinë): 1.22 / 1.05

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Laci vs Egnatia Rrogozhinë score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 4.0% 5.2% 6.1% 4.0% 3.2% 1 3.7% 10.1% 9.1% 6.0% 4.7% 2 3.4% 6.8% 6.8% 4.5% 3.5% 3 1.7% 3.4% 3.4% 2.2% 1.8% 4+ 0.9% 1.8% 1.8% 1.2% 0.9%

Rows: Laci goals. Columns: Egnatia Rrogozhinë goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Laci vs Egnatia Rrogozhinë goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 96%

Over 1.5 87%

Over 2.5 68%

Over 3.5 46%

Both teams to score: 68%
No goals (0–0): 4%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Laci vs Egnatia Rrogozhinë

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Laci	28%	3.55
	Draw	24%	4.25
	Egnatia Rrogozhinë	48%	2.07
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	68%	1.48
	Under 2.5	32%	3.08
Both teams to score	Yes	68%	1.47
	No	32%	3.11
Double chance	1X (Laci or draw)	52%	1.93
	12 (either side)	76%	1.31
	X2 (draw or Egnatia Rrogozhinë)	72%	1.39
Handicap -1	Egnatia Rrogozhinë win by 2+	28%	3.54
	Push (exactly one goal)	20%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

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Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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