AF Elbasani vs Vora: model vs market
| Source | AF Elbasani | Draw | Vora |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 52% | 23% | 24% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 52% | 23% | 24% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.04 vs 1.35.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
AF Elbasani and Vora expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.39
- Attack rating (AF Elbasani / Vora)
- 1.17 / 1.10
- Defence rating (AF Elbasani / Vora)
- 1.22 / 1.35
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
AF Elbasani vs Vora score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: AF Elbasani goals. Columns: Vora goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
AF Elbasani vs Vora goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 65%
- No goals (0–0)
- 4%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for AF Elbasani vs Vora
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | AF Elbasani | 52% | 1.91 |
| Draw | 23% | 4.30 | |
| Vora | 24% | 4.11 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 66% | 1.52 |
| Under 2.5 | 34% | 2.92 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 65% | 1.53 |
| No | 35% | 2.89 | |
| Double chance | 1X (AF Elbasani or draw) | 76% | 1.32 |
| 12 (either side) | 77% | 1.30 | |
| X2 (draw or Vora) | 48% | 2.10 | |
| Handicap -1 | AF Elbasani win by 2+ | 32% | 3.17 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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| 4 |  |
200% first deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
AF Elbasani and Vora recent form
AF Elbasani
1W 4D 1L
Vora
2W 1D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
AF Elbasani at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-0
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.50
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 2
Vora away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-0-2
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 0.33
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 3
League matches this season before kick-off: AF Elbasani at home only, Vora away only.
AF Elbasani vs Vora head-to-head
Last 4 meetings: AF Elbasani 2 · draws 0 · Vora 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-02 | Vora | 4-2 | AF Elbasani | Albania Superliga |
| 2026-02-21 | AF Elbasani | 2-1 | Vora | Albania Superliga |
| 2025-12-13 | Vora | 0-1 | AF Elbasani | Albania Superliga |
| 2025-10-19 | AF Elbasani | 1-2 | Vora | Albania Superliga |
Other Matchday 6 fixtures
- Teuta Durrës v Skenderbeu Korce — match page 2026-10-10
- Laci vs Egnatia Rrogozhinë 2026-10-11
- Partizani vs Tirana — team news & stats 2026-10-11
- Vllaznia Shkodër vs Dinamo Tirana — team news & stats 2026-10-11