Teuta Durrës vs Skenderbeu Korce Prediction & Betting Tips 10/10/2026

Teuta Durrës vs Skenderbeu Korce: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Teuta Durrës	Draw	Skenderbeu Korce
Model	62%	25%	13%
Market	—	—	—
Published	62%	25%	13%
Edge	—	—	—

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.76 vs 0.70.
Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

Teuta Durrës and Skenderbeu Korce expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.76Teuta Durrës

0.70Skenderbeu Korce

Total expected goals: 2.46
Attack rating (Teuta Durrës / Skenderbeu Korce): 1.25 / 0.93
Defence rating (Teuta Durrës / Skenderbeu Korce): 0.75 / 1.09

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Teuta Durrës vs Skenderbeu Korce score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 9.6% 4.9% 2.1% 0.5% 0.1% 1 14.0% 11.6% 3.7% 0.9% 0.2% 2 13.2% 9.3% 3.3% 0.8% 0.2% 3 7.7% 5.4% 1.9% 0.4% 0.1% 4+ 5.0% 3.5% 1.2% 0.3% 0.1%

Rows: Teuta Durrës goals. Columns: Skenderbeu Korce goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Teuta Durrës vs Skenderbeu Korce goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 90%

Over 1.5 71%

Over 2.5 45%

Over 3.5 23%

Both teams to score: 43%
No goals (0–0): 10%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Teuta Durrës vs Skenderbeu Korce

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Teuta Durrës	62%	1.62
	Draw	25%	4.01
	Skenderbeu Korce	13%	7.45
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	45%	2.24
	Under 2.5	55%	1.80
Both teams to score	Yes	43%	2.34
	No	57%	1.75
Double chance	1X (Teuta Durrës or draw)	87%	1.15
	12 (either side)	75%	1.33
	X2 (draw or Skenderbeu Korce)	38%	2.61
Handicap -1	Teuta Durrës win by 2+	36%	2.76
	Push (exactly one goal)	25%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

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Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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