Pully Football vs FC Lugano Prediction & Betting Tips 18/10/2026

Pully Football vs FC Lugano preview

Pully Football faces FC Lugano with a 2% chance of winning compared to Lugano's 92%. The most likely scoreline is 0-3, which aligns with the expected goals of 0.49 for Pully and 3.76 for FC Lugano. The model indicates an 80% probability of Over 2.5 goals but only a 38% chance for both teams to score.

Pully's recent form shows a win, while FC Lugano has been strong with four wins and a draw in their last six matches. The confidence grade is C, suggesting some uncertainty in the model's predictions. A surprising performance from Pully or an off day for Lugano could alter the expected outcome.

Pully Football vs FC Lugano: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Pully Football	Draw	FC Lugano
Model	2%	6%	92%
Market	—	—	—
Published	2%	6%	92%
Edge	—	—	—

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 3.76 vs 0.49.
Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

Pully Football and FC Lugano expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

0.49Pully Football

3.76FC Lugano

Total expected goals: 4.25
Attack rating (Pully Football / FC Lugano): 1.00 / 1.41
Defence rating (Pully Football / FC Lugano): 0.83 / 0.57

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Pully Football vs FC Lugano score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 1.7% 5.1% 10.1% 12.6% 31.6% 1 0.4% 2.9% 5.0% 6.2% 15.6% 2 0.2% 0.7% 1.2% 1.5% 3.9% 3 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% 0.3% 0.6% 4+ 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%

Rows: Pully Football goals. Columns: FC Lugano goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Pully Football vs FC Lugano goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 98%

Over 1.5 93%

Over 2.5 80%

Over 3.5 61%

Both teams to score: 38%
No goals (0–0): 2%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Pully Football vs FC Lugano

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Pully Football	2%	59.15
	Draw	6%	16.35
	FC Lugano	92%	1.08
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	80%	1.26
	Under 2.5	20%	4.91
Both teams to score	Yes	38%	2.61
	No	62%	1.62
Double chance	1X (Pully Football or draw)	8%	12.81
	12 (either side)	94%	1.07
	X2 (draw or FC Lugano)	98%	1.02
Handicap -1	FC Lugano win by 2+	80%	1.24
	Push (exactly one goal)	12%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

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