FC Schaffhausen vs FC Thun Prediction & Betting Tips 18/10/2026

FC Schaffhausen vs FC Thun preview

In the Schweizer Cup fixture, FC Schaffhausen faces FC Thun with probabilities of 8% for Schaffhausen to win, 12% for a draw, and 80% for Thun to take the victory. The most likely scoreline is 1-3, which aligns with expected goals of 1.05 for Schaffhausen and 3.35 for Thun.

The model suggests a high chance of Over 2.5 goals at 82% and a 63% likelihood for both teams to score. However, FC Schaffhausen's recent form shows a mixed bag with a record of W-L-W, while Thun has struggled with W-L-L-L-D-W. This inconsistency could impact the final outcome, making the predictions less certain.

FC Schaffhausen vs FC Thun: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	FC Schaffhausen	Draw	FC Thun
Model	8%	12%	80%
Market	—	—	—
Published	8%	12%	80%
Edge	—	—	—

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 3.35 vs 1.05.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

FC Schaffhausen and FC Thun expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.05FC Schaffhausen

3.35FC Thun

Total expected goals: 4.41
Attack rating (FC Schaffhausen / FC Thun): 1.06 / 0.94
Defence rating (FC Schaffhausen / FC Thun): 1.12 / 1.13

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

FC Schaffhausen vs FC Thun score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 1.7% 3.7% 6.9% 7.7% 15.0% 1 0.9% 4.7% 7.2% 8.1% 15.8% 2 0.7% 2.3% 3.8% 4.3% 8.3% 3 0.2% 0.8% 1.3% 1.5% 2.9% 4+ 0.1% 0.3% 0.4% 0.5% 1.0%

Rows: FC Schaffhausen goals. Columns: FC Thun goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

FC Schaffhausen vs FC Thun goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 98%

Over 1.5 94%

Over 2.5 82%

Over 3.5 64%

Both teams to score: 63%
No goals (0–0): 2%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for FC Schaffhausen vs FC Thun

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	FC Schaffhausen	8%	13.25
	Draw	12%	8.28
	FC Thun	80%	1.24
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	82%	1.23
	Under 2.5	18%	5.42
Both teams to score	Yes	63%	1.58
	No	37%	2.72
Double chance	1X (FC Schaffhausen or draw)	20%	5.10
	12 (either side)	88%	1.14
	X2 (draw or FC Thun)	92%	1.08
Handicap -1	FC Thun win by 2+	64%	1.57
	Push (exactly one goal)	17%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

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Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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