FC Aarau vs FC Zurich Prediction & Betting Tips 18/10/2026

FC Aarau vs FC Zurich preview

In the Schweizer Cup fixture, FC Aarau faces FC Zurich with a 1X2 probability of 10% for Aarau, 19% for a draw, and 71% for Zurich. The most likely scoreline is 0-2, with a 12% chance. FC Aarau has an expected goals figure of 0.77, while FC Zurich stands at 2.31, indicating a significant attacking advantage for Zurich.

The model suggests a 60% chance for Over 2.5 goals and a 49% likelihood for both teams to score. However, if FC Aarau can improve their recent form, which includes two wins in their last six matches, they could potentially disrupt Zurich's dominance. Zurich's recent performance also shows inconsistency, with two wins in their last six matches.

FC Aarau vs FC Zurich: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	FC Aarau	Draw	FC Zurich
Model	9%	18%	73%
Market	—	—	—
Published	9%	18%	73%
Edge	—	—	—

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.36 vs 0.71.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

FC Aarau and FC Zurich expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

0.71FC Aarau

2.36FC Zurich

Total expected goals: 3.07
Attack rating (FC Aarau / FC Zurich): 0.84 / 0.80
Defence rating (FC Aarau / FC Zurich): 0.92 / 0.97

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

FC Aarau vs FC Zurich score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 5.4% 10.1% 12.9% 10.1% 10.4% 1 2.5% 8.6% 9.2% 7.2% 7.4% 2 1.2% 2.8% 3.3% 2.6% 2.7% 3 0.3% 0.7% 0.8% 0.6% 0.6% 4+ 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1%

Rows: FC Aarau goals. Columns: FC Zurich goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

FC Aarau vs FC Zurich goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 95%

Over 1.5 82%

Over 2.5 59%

Over 3.5 37%

Both teams to score: 47%
No goals (0–0): 5%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for FC Aarau vs FC Zurich

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	FC Aarau	9%	11.47
	Draw	18%	5.57
	FC Zurich	73%	1.36
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	59%	1.69
	Under 2.5	41%	2.45
Both teams to score	Yes	47%	2.13
	No	53%	1.89
Double chance	1X (FC Aarau or draw)	27%	3.75
	12 (either side)	82%	1.22
	X2 (draw or FC Zurich)	91%	1.10
Handicap -1	FC Zurich win by 2+	51%	1.96
	Push (exactly one goal)	22%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

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Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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