Stade Nyonnais vs FC Aarau preview
Stade Nyonnais hosts FC Aarau in the Challenge League, with FC Aarau holding a strong 64% chance to win according to the model. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, reflecting FC Aarau's expected goals of 2.46 compared to Stade Nyonnais's 1.26.
There is a 72% chance of Over 2.5 goals, and 66% for both teams to score. Stade Nyonnais's recent form shows three losses in their last five matches, while FC Aarau has had two wins in the same period. The confidence grade is C, indicating some uncertainty in the predictions.
Stade Nyonnais vs FC Aarau: model vs market
| Source | Stade Nyonnais | Draw | FC Aarau |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 17% | 20% | 63% |
| Market | 16% | 20% | 64% |
| Published | 16% | 20% | 64% |
| Edge | +1% | 0% | -1% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.46 vs 1.26.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.47, recorded — the top price across the 6 books we record, each at its own last update.
Stade Nyonnais vs FC Aarau odds movement
Median bookmaker price on FC Aarau, 8 snapshots since 2026-10-03.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stade Nyonnais | 5.62 | 5.71 | +0.09 |
| Draw | 4.70 | 4.60 | -0.10 |
| FC Aarau | 1.42 | 1.42 | +0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Stade Nyonnais and FC Aarau expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.72
- Attack rating (Stade Nyonnais / FC Aarau)
- 0.67 / 1.12
- Defence rating (Stade Nyonnais / FC Aarau)
- 1.58 / 1.12
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Stade Nyonnais vs FC Aarau score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Stade Nyonnais goals. Columns: FC Aarau goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Stade Nyonnais vs FC Aarau goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 66%
- No goals (0–0)
- 3%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Stade Nyonnais vs FC Aarau
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Stade Nyonnais | 16% | 6.14 |
| Draw | 20% | 5.06 | |
| FC Aarau | 64% | 1.56 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 72% | 1.39 |
| Under 2.5 | 28% | 3.55 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 66% | 1.51 |
| No | 34% | 2.97 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Stade Nyonnais or draw) | 36% | 2.78 |
| 12 (either side) | 80% | 1.25 | |
| X2 (draw or FC Aarau) | 84% | 1.19 | |
| Handicap -1 | FC Aarau win by 2+ | 42% | 2.36 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
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Stade Nyonnais and FC Aarau recent form
Stade Nyonnais
0W 2D 4L
FC Aarau
2W 2D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Stade Nyonnais at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-2-2
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.75
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 4
- They have won 0 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They average 1.0 goals per game at home against 0.5 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 8 matches.
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
FC Aarau away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-1-3
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 2.25
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 4
- They have won 3 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Stade Nyonnais at home only, FC Aarau away only.
Stade Nyonnais vs FC Aarau head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: Stade Nyonnais 1 · draws 1 · FC Aarau 3.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-07 | FC Aarau | 2-1 | Stade Nyonnais | Challenge League |
| 2026-05-08 | FC Aarau | 5-1 | Stade Nyonnais | Challenge League |
| 2026-02-20 | Stade Nyonnais | 1-1 | FC Aarau | Challenge League |
| 2025-11-22 | FC Aarau | 0-1 | Stade Nyonnais | Challenge League |
| 2025-08-22 | Stade Nyonnais | 4-5 | FC Aarau | Challenge League |
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