Neuchatel Xamax FC vs FC Winterthur preview
Neuchatel Xamax FC hosts FC Winterthur with the market showing a 48% chance for an away win. Recent form highlights a stark contrast; Neuchatel Xamax FC has lost four of their last five matches, while FC Winterthur is unbeaten in their last five, winning four times. The expected goals suggest a score of 1.19 for Neuchatel Xamax FC compared to 2.03 for FC Winterthur.
The analysis indicates a strong likelihood for Over 2.5 goals at 62% and both teams to score at 61%. However, Neuchatel Xamax FC's home advantage and their past head-to-head record, where they have won 3 out of the last 10 encounters, could challenge these predictions. The confidence grade is C, reflecting uncertainty in the outcome.
Neuchatel Xamax FC vs FC Winterthur: model vs market
| Source | Neuchatel Xamax FC | Draw | FC Winterthur |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 21% | 23% | 56% |
| Market | 30% | 24% | 46% |
| Published | 28% | 24% | 48% |
| Edge | -10% | -1% | +10% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.03 vs 1.19.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices FC Winterthur below the model: +10.4 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.05, recorded — the top price across the 7 books we record, each at its own last update.
Neuchatel Xamax FC vs FC Winterthur odds movement
Median bookmaker price on FC Winterthur, 8 snapshots since 2026-10-03.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Neuchatel Xamax FC | 2.99 | 3.00 | +0.01 |
| Draw | 3.83 | 3.80 | -0.03 |
| FC Winterthur | 1.99 | 2.00 | +0.01 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Neuchatel Xamax FC and FC Winterthur expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.22
- Attack rating (Neuchatel Xamax FC / FC Winterthur)
- 0.87 / 1.28
- Defence rating (Neuchatel Xamax FC / FC Winterthur)
- 1.15 / 0.82
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Neuchatel Xamax FC vs FC Winterthur score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Neuchatel Xamax FC goals. Columns: FC Winterthur goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Neuchatel Xamax FC vs FC Winterthur goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 61%
- No goals (0–0)
- 5%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Neuchatel Xamax FC vs FC Winterthur
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Neuchatel Xamax FC | 28% | 3.57 |
| Draw | 24% | 4.20 | |
| FC Winterthur | 48% | 2.08 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 62% | 1.60 |
| Under 2.5 | 38% | 2.67 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 61% | 1.63 |
| No | 39% | 2.59 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Neuchatel Xamax FC or draw) | 52% | 1.93 |
| 12 (either side) | 76% | 1.31 | |
| X2 (draw or FC Winterthur) | 72% | 1.39 | |
| Handicap -1 | FC Winterthur win by 2+ | 34% | 2.93 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Neuchatel Xamax FC and FC Winterthur recent form
Neuchatel Xamax FC
1W 0D 5L
FC Winterthur
4W 2D 0L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Neuchatel Xamax FC at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-0-3
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 1.25
- Goals against / match
- 2.25
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 4
- They have won 4 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
FC Winterthur away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-1-1
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.25
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 4
- They have won 5 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 2.1 goals per match.
- They average 2.8 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 9 matches.
- They have converted 5 of 5 penalties (100%).
League matches this season before kick-off: Neuchatel Xamax FC at home only, FC Winterthur away only.
Neuchatel Xamax FC vs FC Winterthur head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Neuchatel Xamax FC 3 · draws 2 · FC Winterthur 5.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-04 | FC Winterthur | 4-0 | Neuchatel Xamax FC | Challenge League |
| 2026-03-27 | FC Winterthur | 2-1 | Neuchatel Xamax FC | Friendlies Clubs |
| 2022-05-14 | FC Winterthur | 3-1 | Neuchatel Xamax FC | Challenge League |
| 2022-03-18 | Neuchatel Xamax FC | 0-0 | FC Winterthur | Challenge League |
| 2021-10-29 | Neuchatel Xamax FC | 1-1 | FC Winterthur | Challenge League |
| 2021-09-11 | FC Winterthur | 2-1 | Neuchatel Xamax FC | Challenge League |
| 2021-04-30 | FC Winterthur | 0-1 | Neuchatel Xamax FC | Challenge League |
| 2021-02-20 | Neuchatel Xamax FC | 3-1 | FC Winterthur | Challenge League |
| 2020-12-22 | Neuchatel Xamax FC | 2-0 | FC Winterthur | Challenge League |
| 2020-12-11 | FC Winterthur | 4-0 | Neuchatel Xamax FC | Challenge League |
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