Étoile Carouge vs Yverdon Sport preview
Étoile Carouge hosts Yverdon Sport in the Challenge League, with the market showing a 46% probability for an away win. The most likely scoreline is 0-1, which aligns with Yverdon's expected goals of 1.69 compared to Étoile Carouge's 0.95. This suggests Yverdon Sport is more likely to find the net.
However, both teams to score stands at 51%, indicating a chance for Étoile Carouge to contribute offensively. Recent form shows Étoile Carouge with two losses in their last three matches, while Yverdon Sport has two wins in their last three. This could impact the outcome, making the match less predictable than the probabilities suggest.
Étoile Carouge vs Yverdon Sport: model vs market
| Source | Étoile Carouge | Draw | Yverdon Sport |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 20% | 26% | 54% |
| Market | 31% | 26% | 43% |
| Published | 29% | 26% | 46% |
| Edge | -11% | +1% | +11% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.69 vs 0.95.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices Yverdon Sport below the model: +10.5 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.20, recorded — the top price across the 6 books we record, each at its own last update.
Étoile Carouge vs Yverdon Sport odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Yverdon Sport, 8 snapshots since 2026-10-03.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Étoile Carouge | 2.89 | 2.88 | -0.01 |
| Draw | 3.60 | 3.54 | -0.06 |
| Yverdon Sport | 2.14 | 2.10 | -0.04 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Étoile Carouge and Yverdon Sport expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.64
- Attack rating (Étoile Carouge / Yverdon Sport)
- 0.76 / 1.16
- Defence rating (Étoile Carouge / Yverdon Sport)
- 1.05 / 0.75
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Étoile Carouge vs Yverdon Sport score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Étoile Carouge goals. Columns: Yverdon Sport goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Étoile Carouge vs Yverdon Sport goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 51%
- No goals (0–0)
- 8%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Étoile Carouge vs Yverdon Sport
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Étoile Carouge | 29% | 3.50 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.87 | |
| Yverdon Sport | 46% | 2.19 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 49% | 2.04 |
| Under 2.5 | 51% | 1.96 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 51% | 1.96 |
| No | 49% | 2.05 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Étoile Carouge or draw) | 54% | 1.84 |
| 12 (either side) | 74% | 1.35 | |
| X2 (draw or Yverdon Sport) | 71% | 1.40 | |
| Handicap -1 | Yverdon Sport win by 2+ | 30% | 3.34 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Étoile Carouge and Yverdon Sport recent form
Étoile Carouge
1W 2D 3L
Yverdon Sport
3W 2D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Étoile Carouge at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-1-2
- Win rate
- 40%
- Goals for / match
- 1.20
- Goals against / match
- 0.80
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 5
- They have won 2 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They average 1.2 goals per game at home against 0.3 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 8 matches.
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Yverdon Sport away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-1-1
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.50
- Goals against / match
- 1.25
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 4
- They have won 4 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 1.5 on the road.
- 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Étoile Carouge at home only, Yverdon Sport away only.
Étoile Carouge vs Yverdon Sport head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: Étoile Carouge 2 · draws 2 · Yverdon Sport 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-31 | Yverdon Sport | 1-1 | Étoile Carouge | Challenge League |
| 2026-05-03 | Yverdon Sport | 3-5 | Étoile Carouge | Challenge League |
| 2026-02-20 | Étoile Carouge | 2-2 | Yverdon Sport | Challenge League |
| 2025-11-30 | Yverdon Sport | 2-0 | Étoile Carouge | Challenge League |
| 2025-09-12 | Étoile Carouge | 2-1 | Yverdon Sport | Challenge League |
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