Winkeln St. Gallen vs Lausanne Prediction & Betting Tips 18/10/2026

Winkeln St. Gallen vs Lausanne preview

Winkeln St. Gallen faces Lausanne with 66% probability for a Lausanne win and a most likely scoreline of 0-2 at 11%. Expected goals show Winkeln St. Gallen at 0.93 and Lausanne at 2.25, indicating a significant gap in attacking potential.

However, the match could deviate from this prediction if Winkeln St. Gallen manages to score, as both teams to score has a 55% likelihood. Additionally, with Over 2.5 goals at 61%, there is potential for a higher-scoring game if both teams find the net. The recent form also shows Winkeln St. Gallen winning, while Lausanne has struggled with 5 games without a win.

Winkeln St. Gallen vs Lausanne: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Winkeln St. Gallen	Draw	Lausanne
Model	13%	20%	66%
Market	—	—	—
Published	13%	20%	66%
Edge	—	—	—

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.25 vs 0.93.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

Winkeln St. Gallen and Lausanne expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

0.93Winkeln St. Gallen

2.25Lausanne

Total expected goals: 3.17
Attack rating (Winkeln St. Gallen / Lausanne): 1.16 / 0.65
Defence rating (Winkeln St. Gallen / Lausanne): 1.08 / 0.91

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Winkeln St. Gallen vs Lausanne score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 5.1% 8.5% 10.6% 7.9% 7.5% 1 3.0% 9.6% 9.8% 7.3% 7.0% 2 1.8% 4.0% 4.5% 3.4% 3.2% 3 0.6% 1.2% 1.4% 1.0% 1.0% 4+ 0.2% 0.4% 0.4% 0.3% 0.3%

Rows: Winkeln St. Gallen goals. Columns: Lausanne goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Winkeln St. Gallen vs Lausanne goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 95%

Over 1.5 83%

Over 2.5 61%

Over 3.5 39%

Both teams to score: 55%
No goals (0–0): 5%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Winkeln St. Gallen vs Lausanne

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Winkeln St. Gallen	13%	7.54
	Draw	20%	4.91
	Lausanne	66%	1.51
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	61%	1.63
	Under 2.5	39%	2.59
Both teams to score	Yes	55%	1.82
	No	45%	2.21
Double chance	1X (Winkeln St. Gallen or draw)	34%	2.97
	12 (either side)	80%	1.26
	X2 (draw or Lausanne)	87%	1.15
Handicap -1	Lausanne win by 2+	44%	2.27
	Push (exactly one goal)	22%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

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