FC ST. Gallen vs Lausanne: model vs market
| Source | FC ST. Gallen | Draw | Lausanne |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 51% | 24% | 25% |
| Market | 61% | 20% | 18% |
| Published | 59% | 21% | 20% |
| Edge | -11% | +3% | +7% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.97 vs 1.35.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.53, recorded — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update.
FC ST. Gallen vs Lausanne odds movement
Median bookmaker price on FC ST. Gallen, 4 snapshots since 2026-10-05.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| FC ST. Gallen | 1.50 | 1.50 | -0.00 |
| Draw | 4.60 | 4.50 | -0.10 |
| Lausanne | 5.09 | 5.09 | -0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
FC ST. Gallen and Lausanne expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.32
- Attack rating (FC ST. Gallen / Lausanne)
- 1.05 / 0.73
- Defence rating (FC ST. Gallen / Lausanne)
- 1.16 / 1.04
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
FC ST. Gallen vs Lausanne score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: FC ST. Gallen goals. Columns: Lausanne goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
FC ST. Gallen vs Lausanne goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 65%
- No goals (0–0)
- 5%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for FC ST. Gallen vs Lausanne
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | FC ST. Gallen | 59% | 1.70 |
| Draw | 21% | 4.69 | |
| Lausanne | 20% | 5.02 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 64% | 1.55 |
| Under 2.5 | 36% | 2.81 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 65% | 1.55 |
| No | 35% | 2.83 | |
| Double chance | 1X (FC ST. Gallen or draw) | 80% | 1.25 |
| 12 (either side) | 79% | 1.27 | |
| X2 (draw or Lausanne) | 41% | 2.43 | |
| Handicap -1 | FC ST. Gallen win by 2+ | 30% | 3.34 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
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100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
FC ST. Gallen and Lausanne recent form
FC ST. Gallen
2W 0D 4L
Lausanne
0W 1D 5L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
FC ST. Gallen at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-2
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 1.75
- Goals against / match
- 2.50
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 4
- They have won 3 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
Lausanne away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-2
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 0.50
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 4
- They have won 1 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They average 1.2 goals per game at home against 0.5 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 8 matches.
- 35% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: FC ST. Gallen at home only, Lausanne away only.
FC ST. Gallen vs Lausanne head-to-head
Last 3 meetings: FC ST. Gallen 2 · draws 1 · Lausanne 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-08 | Lausanne | 1-1 | FC ST. Gallen | Switzerland Super League |
| 2025-11-23 | FC ST. Gallen | 1-0 | Lausanne | Switzerland Super League |
| 2025-08-31 | Lausanne | 1-2 | FC ST. Gallen | Switzerland Super League |
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