FC Vaduz vs FC Basel 1893: model vs market
| Source | FC Vaduz | Draw | FC Basel 1893 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 47% | 20% | 32% |
| Market | 36% | 23% | 40% |
| Published | 39% | 23% | 38% |
| Edge | +11% | -3% | -8% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.44 vs 2.03.
- The market prices FC Vaduz below the model: +11.2 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.62, recorded — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update.
FC Vaduz vs FC Basel 1893 odds movement
Median bookmaker price on FC Vaduz, 4 snapshots since 2026-10-05.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| FC Vaduz | 2.55 | 2.55 | -0.00 |
| Draw | 4.00 | 3.95 | -0.05 |
| FC Basel 1893 | 2.30 | 2.30 | +0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
FC Vaduz and FC Basel 1893 expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 4.47
- Attack rating (FC Vaduz / FC Basel 1893)
- 1.14 / 1.13
- Defence rating (FC Vaduz / FC Basel 1893)
- 1.12 / 1.20
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
FC Vaduz vs FC Basel 1893 score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: FC Vaduz goals. Columns: FC Basel 1893 goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
FC Vaduz vs FC Basel 1893 goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 80%
- No goals (0–0)
- 2%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for FC Vaduz vs FC Basel 1893
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | FC Vaduz | 39% | 2.56 |
| Draw | 23% | 4.41 | |
| FC Basel 1893 | 38% | 2.61 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 82% | 1.21 |
| Under 2.5 | 18% | 5.65 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 80% | 1.25 |
| No | 20% | 4.96 | |
| Double chance | 1X (FC Vaduz or draw) | 62% | 1.62 |
| 12 (either side) | 77% | 1.29 | |
| X2 (draw or FC Basel 1893) | 61% | 1.64 | |
| Handicap -1 | FC Vaduz win by 2+ | 30% | 3.38 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 3 |  |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
FC Vaduz and FC Basel 1893 recent form
FC Vaduz
2W 0D 4L
FC Basel 1893
2W 1D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
FC Vaduz at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-0-2
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 2.75
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 4
- They have won 2 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 2.1 goals per match.
- They average 3.3 goals per game at home against 1.4 on the road.
FC Basel 1893 away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-1-0
- Win rate
- 75%
- Goals for / match
- 2.50
- Goals against / match
- 1.50
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 4
- They have won 4 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
- They average 2.5 goals per game on the road against 1.5 at home.
- 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: FC Vaduz at home only, FC Basel 1893 away only.
Other Matchday 10 fixtures
- FC Zurich v FC Thun — match page 2026-10-10
- Servette FC vs FC Sion — team news & stats 2026-10-10
- FC Lugano vs FC Luzern 2026-10-10
- Grasshoppers v BSC Young Boys — match page 2026-10-11
- FC ST. Gallen vs Lausanne 2026-10-11