Twente vs FC Thun Prediction & Betting Tips 15/10/2026

Twente vs FC Thun preview

In the UEFA Europa Conference League match between Twente and FC Thun, the 1X2 probabilities show Twente at 81% to win, while FC Thun sits at just 8%. The most likely scoreline is 3-1, with an 88% chance of Over 2.5 goals and a 72% chance for both teams to score.

Twente's expected goals are 3.79 compared to FC Thun's 1.33, indicating a strong attacking performance from the home side. However, Twente's recent form shows a mix of results, with a confidence grade of C, suggesting that while they are favored, unexpected outcomes could still occur.

Twente vs FC Thun: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Twente	Draw	FC Thun
Model	81%	11%	8%
Market	78%	14%	9%
Published	78%	13%	9%
Edge	+3%	-3%	0%

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 3.79 vs 1.33.
Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
The market prices Twente below the model: +3.0 percentage points of edge.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.24, recorded 2026-10-10 — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update.

Twente vs FC Thun odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Twente, 3 snapshots since 2026-10-09.

Opened 1.20Now 1.20 +0.00

Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
Selection	First	Latest	Move
Twente	1.20	1.20	+0.00
Draw	6.75	6.75	+0.00
FC Thun	10.88	10.88	+0.00

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Twente and FC Thun expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

3.79Twente

1.33FC Thun

Total expected goals: 5.12
Attack rating (Twente / FC Thun): 1.51 / 1.24
Defence rating (Twente / FC Thun): 0.91 / 1.52

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Twente vs FC Thun score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 0.9% 0.5% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 1 2.0% 3.3% 2.0% 0.9% 0.4% 2 4.3% 5.7% 3.8% 1.7% 0.8% 3 5.4% 7.2% 4.8% 2.1% 1.0% 4+ 13.8% 18.4% 12.2% 5.4% 2.4%

Rows: Twente goals. Columns: FC Thun goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Twente vs FC Thun goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 99%

Over 1.5 97%

Over 2.5 88%

Over 3.5 75%

Both teams to score: 72%
No goals (0–0): 1%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Twente vs FC Thun

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Twente	78%	1.28
	Draw	13%	7.63
	FC Thun	9%	11.75
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	88%	1.13
	Under 2.5	12%	8.68
Both teams to score	Yes	72%	1.38
	No	28%	3.61
Double chance	1X (Twente or draw)	91%	1.09
	12 (either side)	87%	1.15
	X2 (draw or FC Thun)	22%	4.62
Handicap -1	Twente win by 2+	65%	1.53
	Push (exactly one goal)	15%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

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Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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