SC Braga vs Sporting CP preview
SC Braga hosts Sporting CP with the market showing a 44% probability for an away win. The most likely scoreline is 0-1, which aligns with the expected goals of 1.13 for SC Braga and 1.17 for Sporting CP. Both teams have shown mixed recent form, with SC Braga's last five matches resulting in two wins and three draws, while Sporting CP has been more consistent with four wins and two draws.
The chances for Over 2.5 goals stand at 40%, while both teams to score is at 48%. This suggests a tighter match, but the outcome could shift if SC Braga capitalizes on home advantage or if Sporting CP continues their winning streak. The confidence grade is C, indicating uncertainty in the predictions.
SC Braga vs Sporting CP: model vs market
| Source | SC Braga | Draw | Sporting CP |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 33% | 31% | 35% |
| Market | 27% | 27% | 46% |
| Published | 28% | 28% | 44% |
| Edge | +7% | +4% | -11% |
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.11, recorded — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update.
SC Braga vs Sporting CP odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Sporting CP, 8 snapshots since 2026-10-03.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| SC Braga | 3.25 | 3.50 | +0.25 |
| Draw | 3.40 | 3.44 | +0.04 |
| Sporting CP | 2.14 | 2.00 | -0.14 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
SC Braga and Sporting CP expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.29
- Attack rating (SC Braga / Sporting CP)
- 0.89 / 1.60
- Defence rating (SC Braga / Sporting CP)
- 0.60 / 0.86
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
SC Braga vs Sporting CP score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: SC Braga goals. Columns: Sporting CP goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
SC Braga vs Sporting CP goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 48%
- No goals (0–0)
- 11%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for SC Braga vs Sporting CP
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | SC Braga | 28% | 3.54 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.57 | |
| Sporting CP | 44% | 2.29 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 40% | 2.49 |
| Under 2.5 | 60% | 1.67 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 48% | 2.09 |
| No | 52% | 1.92 | |
| Double chance | 1X (SC Braga or draw) | 56% | 1.78 |
| 12 (either side) | 72% | 1.39 | |
| X2 (draw or Sporting CP) | 72% | 1.39 | |
| Handicap -1 | Sporting CP win by 2+ | 15% | 6.50 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
SC Braga and Sporting CP recent form
SC Braga
3W 2D 1L
Sporting CP
4W 2D 0L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
SC Braga at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-0-0
- Win rate
- 100%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 0.00
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 2
- They have won 3 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
Sporting CP away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-2-0
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 2.33
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 3
- They have won 4 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 2.5 goals per match.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: SC Braga at home only, Sporting CP away only.
SC Braga vs Sporting CP head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: SC Braga 0 · draws 2 · Sporting CP 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-07 | SC Braga | 2-2 | Sporting CP | Primeira Liga |
| 2025-10-05 | Sporting CP | 1-1 | SC Braga | Primeira Liga |
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