Updated

Primeira Liga · Matchday 8

SC Braga vs Sporting CP

· Estádio Municipal de Braga, Braga· Referee Joao Pinheiro

Full time1 – 3

Alin prediction was Sporting CP to win

Cblended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 0 – 1

10% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
SC BragaDrawSporting CP

SC Braga vs Sporting CP: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceSC BragaDrawSporting CP
Model33%31%35%
Market31%29%40%
Published31%30%39%
Edge+1%0%-1%
  • Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

SC Braga vs Sporting CP odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Sporting CP, 14 snapshots since 2026-10-03.

Opened 2.14Now 2.34 +0.20
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
SC Braga3.253.08-0.17
Draw3.403.20-0.20
Sporting CP2.142.34+0.20

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

SC Braga and Sporting CP expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.13SC Braga
1.17Sporting CP
Total expected goals
2.29
Attack rating (SC Braga / Sporting CP)
0.89 / 1.60
Defence rating (SC Braga / Sporting CP)
0.60 / 0.86

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

SC Braga vs Sporting CP score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 11.4% 10.5% 6.9% 2.7% 1.0% 1 10.0% 14.6% 7.7% 3.0% 1.1% 2 6.4% 7.5% 4.4% 1.7% 0.6% 3 2.4% 2.8% 1.6% 0.6% 0.2% 4+ 0.9% 1.0% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1%

Rows: SC Braga goals. Columns: Sporting CP goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

SC Braga vs Sporting CP goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 89%
Over 1.5 68%
Over 2.5 40%
Over 3.5 20%
Both teams to score
48%
No goals (0–0)
11%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for SC Braga vs Sporting CP

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2SC Braga31%3.20
Draw30%3.36
Sporting CP39%2.57
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.540%2.49
Under 2.560%1.67
Both teams to scoreYes48%2.09
No52%1.92
Double chance1X (SC Braga or draw)61%1.64
12 (either side)70%1.42
X2 (draw or Sporting CP)69%1.45
Handicap -1Sporting CP win by 2+15%6.48
Push (exactly one goal)20%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

SC Braga and Sporting CP recent form

SC Braga 3W 2D 1L
Sporting CP 4W 2D 0L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

SC Braga at home

Record (W-D-L)
2-0-0
Win rate
100%
Goals for / match
1.00
Goals against / match
0.00
Clean sheets
2 of 2
  • They have won 3 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
  • They have kept 3 clean sheets in 6 matches.
  • 42% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Sporting CP away

Record (W-D-L)
1-2-0
Win rate
33%
Goals for / match
2.33
Goals against / match
1.00
Clean sheets
1 of 3
  • They have won 4 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 2.4 goals per match.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
  • 44% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: SC Braga at home only, Sporting CP away only.

Expected lineups

SC Braga lineup · 3-4-2-1

  1. 31 Bernardo Fontes
  2. 44 A. Bajrami
  3. 6 Vitor Carvalho
  4. 22 Sergio Barcia
  5. 11 Gabriel Silva
  6. 8 João Moutinho
  7. 29 J. Gorby
  8. 2 Víctor Gómez
  9. 21 Ricardo Horta
  10. 23 D. Huseinbašić
  11. 10 Pau Victor

Bench: Diogo Travassos, Fran Navarro, G. Lagerbielke, Tomás Marqués, J. Milošević, J. Wind, M. Dorgeles, B. Arrey-Mbi, E. Tıknaz, Diego Rodrigues, Gabri Martínez, João Carvalho

Sporting CP lineup · 4-3-3

  1. 1 Rui Silva
  2. 13 G. Vagiannidis
  3. 25 Gonçalo Inácio
  4. 72 Eduardo Quaresma
  5. 22 Iván Fresneda
  6. 77 I. Doumbia
  7. 5 Sergi Altimira
  8. 4 S. Andersen
  9. 19 N. Irankunda
  10. 7 F. Ioannidis
  11. 10 Geny Catamo

Bench: João Simões, Rafael Ferreira Nel, R. Zalazar, M. Araújo, Pedro Lima, J. Derry, Kaique, Luis Guilherme, Ibrahima Ba, Flávio Gonçalves, Eduardo Felicíssimo, L. Suárez

SC Braga vs Sporting CP head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: SC Braga 1 · draws 5 · Sporting CP 4.

SC BragaDrawsSporting CP
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-03-07SC Braga2-2Sporting CPPrimeira Liga
2025-10-05Sporting CP1-1SC BragaPrimeira Liga
2025-04-07Sporting CP1-1SC BragaPrimeira Liga
2024-11-10SC Braga2-4Sporting CPPrimeira Liga
2024-02-11Sporting CP5-0SC BragaPrimeira Liga
2024-01-23SC Braga1-0Sporting CPTaça da Liga
2023-09-03SC Braga1-1Sporting CPPrimeira Liga
2023-02-01Sporting CP5-0SC BragaPrimeira Liga
2022-12-19Sporting CP5-0SC BragaTaça da Liga
2022-08-07SC Braga3-3Sporting CPPrimeira Liga

Other Matchday 8 fixtures

Before and after this match