Moreirense vs GIL Vicente: model vs market
| Source | Moreirense | Draw | GIL Vicente |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 35% | 32% | 34% |
| Market | 28% | 30% | 42% |
| Published | 29% | 31% | 40% |
| Edge | +2% | 0% | -2% |
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
Moreirense vs GIL Vicente odds movement
Median bookmaker price on GIL Vicente, 14 snapshots since 2026-10-03.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moreirense | 3.40 | 3.40 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 3.20 | 3.10 | -0.10 |
| GIL Vicente | 2.20 | 2.25 | +0.05 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Moreirense and GIL Vicente expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.23
- Attack rating (Moreirense / GIL Vicente)
- 0.83 / 0.74
- Defence rating (Moreirense / GIL Vicente)
- 1.22 / 0.93
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Moreirense vs GIL Vicente score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Moreirense goals. Columns: GIL Vicente goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Moreirense vs GIL Vicente goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 47%
- No goals (0–0)
- 12%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Moreirense vs GIL Vicente
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Moreirense | 29% | 3.39 |
| Draw | 31% | 3.26 | |
| GIL Vicente | 40% | 2.51 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 39% | 2.59 |
| Under 2.5 | 61% | 1.63 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 47% | 2.15 |
| No | 53% | 1.87 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Moreirense or draw) | 60% | 1.66 |
| 12 (either side) | 69% | 1.44 | |
| X2 (draw or GIL Vicente) | 71% | 1.42 | |
| Handicap -1 | GIL Vicente win by 2+ | 14% | 7.11 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Moreirense and GIL Vicente recent form
Moreirense
2W 1D 3L
GIL Vicente
2W 2D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Moreirense at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-1
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 1.67
- Goals against / match
- 2.33
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 3
- They have won 2 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They average 1.7 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
GIL Vicente away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-1-1
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.50
- Goals against / match
- 1.50
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 2
- They have won 2 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 6 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Moreirense at home only, GIL Vicente away only.
Expected lineups
Moreirense lineup · 4-2-3-1
- 13 André Ferreira
- 27 Kiko
- 26 Maracás
- 66 Gilberto Batista
- 76 Dinis Pinto
- 65 Guilherme Liberato
- 23 N. John
- 19 Tiago Andrade
- 7 Manuel Ascenção Bebiano Mendonça
- 10 Kiko Bondoso
- 79 L. Vonić
Bench: Aranha, Leandro Henrique Sousa Santos, Kevyn Monteiro, M. Stjepanović, Landerson, Álvaro Martínez, João Veloso, Rodri Alonso, Chipyoka Songa, José, Maranhão
GIL Vicente lineup · 4-2-3-1
- 30 Lucão
- 45 David Moreira
- 39 Jonathan Buatu
- 4 M. Elimbi Gilbert
- 47 Ricardo Esgaio
- 86 Diogo Ferreira Prioste
- 12 A. Lausen
- 20 Gil Pinto Martins
- 10 Santi García
- 77 Murilo
- 23 Héctor Hernández
Bench: José Silva, Espigares, T. Touré, Walace, Joelson Fernandes, Sergio Bermejo, Guilherme, A. Moreira, M. Fernández, Gonçalo Maia Pereira, Samuel, M. Kaba
Moreirense vs GIL Vicente head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Moreirense 3 · draws 3 · GIL Vicente 4.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-25 | GIL Vicente | 2-2 | Moreirense | Friendlies Clubs |
| 2026-02-07 | Moreirense | 1-2 | GIL Vicente | Primeira Liga |
| 2025-08-29 | GIL Vicente | 2-0 | Moreirense | Primeira Liga |
| 2025-04-06 | GIL Vicente | 0-1 | Moreirense | Primeira Liga |
| 2025-01-12 | GIL Vicente | 1-0 | Moreirense | Taça de Portugal |
| 2024-11-08 | Moreirense | 3-2 | GIL Vicente | Primeira Liga |
| 2024-04-20 | Moreirense | 0-1 | GIL Vicente | Primeira Liga |
| 2023-12-11 | GIL Vicente | 1-1 | Moreirense | Primeira Liga |
| 2022-04-08 | GIL Vicente | 1-2 | Moreirense | Primeira Liga |
| 2021-11-26 | Moreirense | 2-2 | GIL Vicente | Primeira Liga |
Other Matchday 8 fixtures
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- Academico Viseu v Estoril — match page 2026-10-10
- Casa Pia v Santa Clara — match page 2026-10-10
- Rio Ave vs Nacional 2026-10-11
- Benfica vs Vitória SC — team news & stats 2026-10-11
- Arouca vs Estrela — team news & stats 2026-10-11
- Famalicao vs Alverca 2026-10-12
Before and after this match
- Moreirense, next: AVS vs Moreirense: odds and pick
- GIL Vicente, next: União Santarém v GIL Vicente analysis