Moreirense vs GIL Vicente preview
The fixture between Moreirense and GIL Vicente shows a 40% probability for GIL Vicente to win, compared to 30% for Moreirense and 30% for a draw. The most likely scoreline is 0-1, with an 11% chance. Both teams to score sits at 47%, while Over 2.5 goals is at 39%.
Recent form indicates Moreirense has two wins in their last six matches, while GIL Vicente has two wins in their last six as well. The expected goals are closely matched, with Moreirense at 1.13 and GIL Vicente at 1.11. A lack of scoring from either team could make the prediction of a low-scoring match more likely.
Moreirense vs GIL Vicente: model vs market
| Source | Moreirense | Draw | GIL Vicente |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 35% | 32% | 34% |
| Market | 28% | 29% | 42% |
| Published | 30% | 30% | 40% |
| Edge | +7% | +2% | -9% |
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.31, recorded — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update.
Moreirense vs GIL Vicente odds movement
Median bookmaker price on GIL Vicente, 8 snapshots since 2026-10-03.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moreirense | 3.40 | 3.30 | -0.10 |
| Draw | 3.20 | 3.18 | -0.02 |
| GIL Vicente | 2.20 | 2.20 | +0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Moreirense and GIL Vicente expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.23
- Attack rating (Moreirense / GIL Vicente)
- 0.83 / 0.74
- Defence rating (Moreirense / GIL Vicente)
- 1.22 / 0.93
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Moreirense vs GIL Vicente score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Moreirense goals. Columns: GIL Vicente goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Moreirense vs GIL Vicente goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 47%
- No goals (0–0)
- 12%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Moreirense vs GIL Vicente
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Moreirense | 30% | 3.34 |
| Draw | 30% | 3.35 | |
| GIL Vicente | 40% | 2.49 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 39% | 2.59 |
| Under 2.5 | 61% | 1.63 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 47% | 2.15 |
| No | 53% | 1.87 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Moreirense or draw) | 60% | 1.67 |
| 12 (either side) | 70% | 1.43 | |
| X2 (draw or GIL Vicente) | 70% | 1.43 | |
| Handicap -1 | GIL Vicente win by 2+ | 14% | 7.11 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Moreirense and GIL Vicente recent form
Moreirense
2W 1D 3L
GIL Vicente
2W 2D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Moreirense at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-1
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 1.67
- Goals against / match
- 2.33
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 3
- They have won 2 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They average 1.7 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
GIL Vicente away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-1-1
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.50
- Goals against / match
- 1.50
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 2
- They have won 2 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 6 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Moreirense at home only, GIL Vicente away only.
Moreirense vs GIL Vicente head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Moreirense 3 · draws 3 · GIL Vicente 4.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-25 | GIL Vicente | 2-2 | Moreirense | Friendlies Clubs |
| 2026-02-07 | Moreirense | 1-2 | GIL Vicente | Primeira Liga |
| 2025-08-29 | GIL Vicente | 2-0 | Moreirense | Primeira Liga |
| 2025-04-06 | GIL Vicente | 0-1 | Moreirense | Primeira Liga |
| 2025-01-12 | GIL Vicente | 1-0 | Moreirense | Taça de Portugal |
| 2024-11-08 | Moreirense | 3-2 | GIL Vicente | Primeira Liga |
| 2024-04-20 | Moreirense | 0-1 | GIL Vicente | Primeira Liga |
| 2023-12-11 | GIL Vicente | 1-1 | Moreirense | Primeira Liga |
| 2022-04-08 | GIL Vicente | 1-2 | Moreirense | Primeira Liga |
| 2021-11-26 | Moreirense | 2-2 | GIL Vicente | Primeira Liga |
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