Updated

Primeira Liga · Matchday 8

Casa Pia vs Santa Clara

· Estadio Municipal de Rio Maior, Rio Mayor· Referee Iancu Ioan Vasilica

Full time0 – 1

Alin prediction was Santa Clara to win

Cblended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 0 – 1

18% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Casa PiaDrawSanta Clara

Casa Pia vs Santa Clara: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceCasa PiaDrawSanta Clara
Model13%29%58%
Market24%28%47%
Published21%29%50%
Edge-3%0%+3%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.46 vs 0.57.
  • Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
  • The market prices Santa Clara below our published probability: +2.6 percentage points of edge.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Casa Pia vs Santa Clara odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Santa Clara, 14 snapshots since 2026-10-04.

Opened 1.87Now 1.98 +0.11
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Casa Pia4.333.90-0.43
Draw3.253.30+0.05
Santa Clara1.871.98+0.11

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Casa Pia and Santa Clara expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

0.57Casa Pia
1.46Santa Clara
Total expected goals
2.04
Attack rating (Casa Pia / Santa Clara)
0.59 / 1.03
Defence rating (Casa Pia / Santa Clara)
1.15 / 0.66

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Casa Pia vs Santa Clara score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 14.2% 18.0% 13.9% 6.8% 3.4% 1 6.4% 12.1% 8.0% 3.9% 2.0% 2 2.2% 3.1% 2.3% 1.1% 0.6% 3 0.4% 0.6% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 4+ 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%

Rows: Casa Pia goals. Columns: Santa Clara goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Casa Pia vs Santa Clara goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 86%
Over 1.5 61%
Over 2.5 33%
Over 3.5 15%
Both teams to score
35%
No goals (0–0)
14%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Casa Pia vs Santa Clara

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Casa Pia21%4.67
Draw29%3.50
Santa Clara50%2.00
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.533%3.01
Under 2.567%1.50
Both teams to scoreYes35%2.89
No65%1.53
Double chance1X (Casa Pia or draw)50%2.00
12 (either side)71%1.40
X2 (draw or Santa Clara)79%1.27
Handicap -1Santa Clara win by 2+31%3.26
Push (exactly one goal)27%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Casa Pia and Santa Clara recent form

Casa Pia 1W 1D 4L
Santa Clara 4W 2D 0L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Casa Pia at home

Record (W-D-L)
0-0-3
Win rate
0%
Goals for / match
0.33
Goals against / match
4.00
Clean sheets
0 of 3
  • They have won 1 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 0.4 goals per match.
  • They have failed to score in 5 of 7 matches.
  • 40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Santa Clara away

Record (W-D-L)
2-1-0
Win rate
67%
Goals for / match
1.33
Goals against / match
0.67
Clean sheets
1 of 3
  • They have won 4 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
  • They have kept 4 clean sheets in 7 matches.
  • 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: Casa Pia at home only, Santa Clara away only.

Expected lineups

Casa Pia lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 95 Ivan Mandić
  2. 75 Pedro Rosas
  3. 43 David Sousa
  4. 3 Kaly
  5. 18 Geraldes
  6. 80 L. Ofori
  7. 16 Silvi
  8. 77 B. Pauwels
  9. 70 João Pedro Seno Luís Rêgo
  10. 11 M. El Boukammiri
  11. 9 Henrique Araújo

Bench: P. Sequeira, João Goulart, Gabi Pereira, Rochinha, E. Maurin, K. Prieto, A. Jatta, A. Zouin, S. Pérez, Felipe Silva, Cassiano, JP

Santa Clara lineup · 4-3-3

  1. 1 Lucas França
  2. 5 Guilherme Romão
  3. 21 Emanuel Fernandes
  4. 4 Pedro Pacheco
  5. 42 Lucas Soares
  6. 20 Tiago Ribeiro
  7. 6 Pedro Ferreira
  8. 8 José Luís Rocha Tavares
  9. 10 Brenner Lucas Gonçalves Santos
  10. 9 Gonçalo Paciência
  11. 70 Vinícius Lopes

Bench: Henrique Silva, Luis Fernando Santos Oliveira, Welinton Torrão, Neneca, João Vasconcelos, Vitinho, Daniel Borges, Léo Jacó, Sorriso

Casa Pia vs Santa Clara head-to-head

Last 7 meetings: Casa Pia 2 · draws 2 · Santa Clara 3.

Casa PiaDrawsSanta Clara
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-04-18Casa Pia0-0Santa ClaraPrimeira Liga
2025-12-06Santa Clara1-0Casa PiaPrimeira Liga
2025-02-01Santa Clara2-1Casa PiaPrimeira Liga
2024-08-24Casa Pia0-2Santa ClaraPrimeira Liga
2023-01-29Casa Pia2-1Santa ClaraPrimeira Liga
2022-08-07Santa Clara0-0Casa PiaPrimeira Liga
2019-12-22Santa Clara1-2Casa PiaTaça da Liga

Other Matchday 8 fixtures

Before and after this match