Alpendorada vs Casa Pia Prediction & Betting Tips 18/10/2026

Alpendorada vs Casa Pia preview

In the Taça de Portugal, Alpendorada faces Casa Pia with a 73% probability of winning compared to Casa Pia's 9%. The most likely scoreline is 2-0, which aligns with Alpendorada's expected goals of 2.38 against Casa Pia's 0.74.

While our model suggests a strong performance from Alpendorada, the 48% chance of both teams to score indicates that Casa Pia could find the net. Additionally, Alpendorada's recent form shows a mix of results, with a recent D-L-W-W-W streak, while Casa Pia has struggled, recording 1 win in their last 6 matches. This could impact the final outcome.

Alpendorada vs Casa Pia: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Alpendorada	Draw	Casa Pia
Model	73%	18%	9%
Market	—	—	—
Published	73%	18%	9%
Edge	—	—	—

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.38 vs 0.74.
Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 5 vs 1 for the opposition.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

Alpendorada and Casa Pia expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

2.38Alpendorada

0.74Casa Pia

Total expected goals: 3.12
Attack rating (Alpendorada / Casa Pia): 1.38 / 0.54
Defence rating (Alpendorada / Casa Pia): 0.92 / 1.00

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Alpendorada vs Casa Pia score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 5.2% 2.5% 1.2% 0.3% 0.1% 1 9.7% 8.6% 2.9% 0.7% 0.2% 2 12.5% 9.3% 3.4% 0.9% 0.2% 3 9.9% 7.3% 2.7% 0.7% 0.1% 4+ 10.3% 7.6% 2.8% 0.7% 0.2%

Rows: Alpendorada goals. Columns: Casa Pia goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Alpendorada vs Casa Pia goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 95%

Over 1.5 83%

Over 2.5 60%

Over 3.5 38%

Both teams to score: 48%
No goals (0–0): 5%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Alpendorada vs Casa Pia

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Alpendorada	73%	1.37
	Draw	18%	5.56
	Casa Pia	9%	11.02
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	60%	1.66
	Under 2.5	40%	2.52
Both teams to score	Yes	48%	2.07
	No	52%	1.94
Double chance	1X (Alpendorada or draw)	91%	1.10
	12 (either side)	82%	1.22
	X2 (draw or Casa Pia)	27%	3.70
Handicap -1	Alpendorada win by 2+	51%	1.97
	Push (exactly one goal)	22%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

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Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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