Vitoria Setubal vs UD da Serra Prediction & Betting Tips 18/10/2026

Vitoria Setubal vs UD da Serra preview

In the Taça de Portugal, Vitoria Setubal faces UD da Serra with a 41% chance of winning compared to 35% for UD da Serra. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, with an 8% probability. Both teams are showing strong attacking potential, as indicated by the expected goals of 1.83 for Vitoria Setubal and 1.69 for UD da Serra.

The model suggests a high likelihood of Over 2.5 goals at 68% and both teams to score at 69%. However, the recent form shows Vitoria Setubal has won their last match, while UD da Serra has mixed results with two wins and one loss. This could affect the predicted outcomes, making the match unpredictable.

Vitoria Setubal vs UD da Serra: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Vitoria Setubal	Draw	UD da Serra
Model	41%	24%	35%
Market	—	—	—
Published	41%	24%	35%
Edge	—	—	—

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

Vitoria Setubal and UD da Serra expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.83Vitoria Setubal

1.69UD da Serra

Total expected goals: 3.53
Attack rating (Vitoria Setubal / UD da Serra): 1.04 / 1.35
Defence rating (Vitoria Setubal / UD da Serra): 0.83 / 1.02

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Vitoria Setubal vs UD da Serra score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 3.9% 4.1% 4.2% 2.4% 1.5% 1 4.5% 10.0% 7.7% 4.4% 2.7% 2 4.9% 8.4% 7.1% 4.0% 2.5% 3 3.0% 5.1% 4.3% 2.4% 1.5% 4+ 2.1% 3.5% 3.0% 1.7% 1.1%

Rows: Vitoria Setubal goals. Columns: UD da Serra goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Vitoria Setubal vs UD da Serra goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 96%

Over 1.5 88%

Over 2.5 68%

Over 3.5 47%

Both teams to score: 69%
No goals (0–0): 4%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Vitoria Setubal vs UD da Serra

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Vitoria Setubal	41%	2.45
	Draw	24%	4.17
	UD da Serra	35%	2.84
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	68%	1.46
	Under 2.5	32%	3.17
Both teams to score	Yes	69%	1.44
	No	31%	3.28
Double chance	1X (Vitoria Setubal or draw)	65%	1.54
	12 (either side)	76%	1.32
	X2 (draw or UD da Serra)	59%	1.69
Handicap -1	Vitoria Setubal win by 2+	22%	4.47
	Push (exactly one goal)	18%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

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