Fátima vs Academico Viseu Prediction & Betting Tips 18/10/2026

Fátima vs Academico Viseu preview

Fátima faces Academico Viseu with 39% chances for Fátima to win, 33% for Academico Viseu, and a 28% likelihood of a draw. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, with a 9% probability. Both teams to score sits at 56%, while Over 2.5 goals has a 51% chance according to our model.

Fátima's expected goals are 1.42, slightly higher than Academico Viseu's 1.28. However, Fátima's recent form shows a mix of results with two wins and one loss, while Academico Viseu has three wins in their last six matches. This inconsistency could affect the outcome of the match.

Fátima vs Academico Viseu: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Fátima	Draw	Academico Viseu
Model	39%	28%	33%
Market	—	—	—
Published	39%	28%	33%
Edge	—	—	—

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

Fátima and Academico Viseu expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.42Fátima

1.28Academico Viseu

Total expected goals: 2.70
Attack rating (Fátima / Academico Viseu): 1.20 / 0.85
Defence rating (Fátima / Academico Viseu): 1.00 / 0.69

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Fátima vs Academico Viseu score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 8.0% 7.4% 5.5% 2.3% 1.0% 1 8.3% 13.4% 7.8% 3.3% 1.4% 2 6.8% 8.7% 5.5% 2.4% 1.0% 3 3.2% 4.1% 2.6% 1.1% 0.5% 4+ 1.6% 2.0% 1.3% 0.5% 0.2%

Rows: Fátima goals. Columns: Academico Viseu goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Fátima vs Academico Viseu goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 92%

Over 1.5 76%

Over 2.5 51%

Over 3.5 29%

Both teams to score: 56%
No goals (0–0): 8%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Fátima vs Academico Viseu

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Fátima	39%	2.56
	Draw	28%	3.54
	Academico Viseu	33%	3.06
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	51%	1.98
	Under 2.5	49%	2.02
Both teams to score	Yes	56%	1.79
	No	44%	2.27
Double chance	1X (Fátima or draw)	67%	1.49
	12 (either side)	72%	1.39
	X2 (draw or Academico Viseu)	61%	1.64
Handicap -1	Fátima win by 2+	19%	5.25
	Push (exactly one goal)	20%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

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Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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