Alcochetense vs Maritimo Prediction & Betting Tips 18/10/2026

Alcochetense vs Maritimo preview

In the Taça de Portugal match between Alcochetense and Maritimo, the 1X2 probabilities show Alcochetense at 73% and Maritimo at 10%. The most likely scoreline is 2-0, with an 11% chance. Alcochetense has an expected goals figure of 2.56, while Maritimo sits at 0.86.

There is a 66% probability for Over 2.5 goals and a 54% chance for both teams to score. Alcochetense's recent form includes two wins followed by a loss, while Maritimo has drawn once and lost four of their last six matches. The confidence grade for this prediction is C, indicating some uncertainty in the outcome.

Alcochetense vs Maritimo: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Alcochetense	Draw	Maritimo
Model	73%	17%	10%
Market	—	—	—
Published	73%	17%	10%
Edge	—	—	—

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.56 vs 0.86.
Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 3 vs 1 for the opposition.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

Alcochetense and Maritimo expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

2.56Alcochetense

0.86Maritimo

Total expected goals: 3.41
Attack rating (Alcochetense / Maritimo): 1.48 / 0.75
Defence rating (Alcochetense / Maritimo): 0.76 / 1.00

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Alcochetense vs Maritimo score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 4.0% 2.1% 1.2% 0.3% 0.1% 1 7.7% 7.9% 3.1% 0.9% 0.2% 2 10.8% 9.2% 4.0% 1.1% 0.3% 3 9.2% 7.9% 3.4% 1.0% 0.2% 4+ 10.8% 9.3% 4.0% 1.1% 0.3%

Rows: Alcochetense goals. Columns: Maritimo goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Alcochetense vs Maritimo goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 96%

Over 1.5 86%

Over 2.5 66%

Over 3.5 44%

Both teams to score: 54%
No goals (0–0): 4%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Alcochetense vs Maritimo

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Alcochetense	73%	1.36
	Draw	17%	5.88
	Maritimo	10%	10.36
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	66%	1.51
	Under 2.5	34%	2.97
Both teams to score	Yes	54%	1.86
	No	46%	2.17
Double chance	1X (Alcochetense or draw)	90%	1.11
	12 (either side)	83%	1.21
	X2 (draw or Maritimo)	27%	3.75
Handicap -1	Alcochetense win by 2+	52%	1.91
	Push (exactly one goal)	21%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

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Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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