Maritimo vs FC Porto: model vs market
| Source | Maritimo | Draw | FC Porto |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 15% | 24% | 61% |
| Market | 9% | 18% | 73% |
| Published | 10% | 19% | 70% |
| Edge | +1% | +2% | -3% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.89 vs 0.83.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
Maritimo vs FC Porto odds movement
Median bookmaker price on FC Porto, 14 snapshots since 2026-10-04.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Maritimo | 8.50 | 10.50 | +2.00 |
| Draw | 4.85 | 5.40 | +0.55 |
| FC Porto | 1.33 | 1.29 | -0.03 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Maritimo and FC Porto expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.72
- Attack rating (Maritimo / FC Porto)
- 0.85 / 1.34
- Defence rating (Maritimo / FC Porto)
- 1.15 / 0.67
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Maritimo vs FC Porto score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Maritimo goals. Columns: FC Porto goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Maritimo vs FC Porto goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 49%
- No goals (0–0)
- 8%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Maritimo vs FC Porto
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Maritimo | 10% | 9.53 |
| Draw | 19% | 5.22 | |
| FC Porto | 70% | 1.42 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 51% | 1.96 |
| Under 2.5 | 49% | 2.05 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 49% | 2.05 |
| No | 51% | 1.96 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Maritimo or draw) | 30% | 3.37 |
| 12 (either side) | 81% | 1.24 | |
| X2 (draw or FC Porto) | 90% | 1.12 | |
| Handicap -1 | FC Porto win by 2+ | 37% | 2.68 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Maritimo and FC Porto recent form
Maritimo
1W 2D 3L
FC Porto
5W 0D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Maritimo at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-1
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.67
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 3
- They have won 2 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
FC Porto away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-0-0
- Win rate
- 100%
- Goals for / match
- 3.00
- Goals against / match
- 0.33
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 3
- They have won 7 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 2.6 goals per match.
- They average 3.0 goals per game on the road against 2.2 at home.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 7 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 7 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
League matches this season before kick-off: Maritimo at home only, FC Porto away only.
Expected lineups
Maritimo lineup · 4-2-3-1
- 30 Fran Vieites
- 23 Paulo Henrique
- 44 Romain Correia
- 22 G. Szalai
- 15 Tomás Tavares
- 14 Raphael Guzzo
- 21 I. Alani
- 10 Martín Tejón
- 8 M. Dominguez
- 2 Igor Julião
- 17 Adrián Butzke
Bench: Gonçalo Tabuaço, N. Ogbeta, Rafael Fernandes, Rodrigo Andrade, M. Diouri, M. Bassouamina, Alfonso Pastor, V. Danilović, S. Bamba, B. Limbombe, I. Ayuma, Maurice Osei Boakye
FC Porto lineup · 4-3-3
- 99 Diogo Costa
- 74 Francisco Moura
- 4 J. Kiwior
- 5 J. Bednarek
- 20 Alberto Baio
- 16 Hwang In-Beom
- 22 A. Varela
- 8 Victor Mow Froholdt
- 11 Pepê Aquino
- 19 André Silva
- 7 William
Bench: C. Smalling, Samu, Gabri Veiga, P. Rosario, Cláudio Ramos, Borja Sainz, S. Giménez, Souza, Gabriel Mec, S. Fofana, Martim Fernandes, O. Pietuszewski
Maritimo vs FC Porto head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Maritimo 1 · draws 2 · FC Porto 7.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-02-01 | Maritimo | 0-2 | FC Porto | Primeira Liga |
| 2022-08-06 | FC Porto | 5-1 | Maritimo | Primeira Liga |
| 2022-01-30 | FC Porto | 2-1 | Maritimo | Primeira Liga |
| 2021-08-22 | Maritimo | 1-1 | FC Porto | Primeira Liga |
| 2021-02-22 | Maritimo | 1-2 | FC Porto | Primeira Liga |
| 2020-10-03 | FC Porto | 2-3 | Maritimo | Primeira Liga |
| 2020-06-10 | FC Porto | 1-0 | Maritimo | Primeira Liga |
| 2019-10-30 | Maritimo | 1-1 | FC Porto | Primeira Liga |
| 2019-03-16 | FC Porto | 3-0 | Maritimo | Primeira Liga |
| 2018-11-03 | Maritimo | 0-2 | FC Porto | Primeira Liga |
Other Matchday 8 fixtures
- Moreirense v GIL Vicente — match page 2026-10-09
- SC Braga vs Sporting CP — team news & stats 2026-10-09
- Academico Viseu v Estoril — match page 2026-10-10
- Casa Pia v Santa Clara — match page 2026-10-10
- Rio Ave vs Nacional 2026-10-11
- Benfica vs Vitória SC — team news & stats 2026-10-11
- Arouca vs Estrela — team news & stats 2026-10-11
- Famalicao vs Alverca 2026-10-12
Before and after this match
- Maritimo, next: Alcochetense vs Maritimo prediction
- FC Porto, next: Real Betis v FC Porto analysis