Updated

Primeira Liga · Matchday 8

Academico Viseu vs Estoril

· Estadio do Fontelo, Viseu· Referee Claudio Pereira

Full time2 – 1

Alin prediction was Academico Viseu to win

Cblended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 1 – 0

18% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Academico ViseuDrawEstoril

Academico Viseu vs Estoril: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceAcademico ViseuDrawEstoril
Model62%26%11%
Market42%28%30%
Published47%27%26%
Edge+5%0%-5%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.60 vs 0.54.
  • Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
  • The market prices Academico Viseu below our published probability: +5.1 percentage points of edge.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Academico Viseu vs Estoril odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Academico Viseu, 14 snapshots since 2026-10-04.

Opened 2.25Now 2.25 +0.00
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Academico Viseu2.252.25+0.00
Draw3.403.40+0.00
Estoril3.003.10+0.10

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Academico Viseu and Estoril expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.60Academico Viseu
0.54Estoril
Total expected goals
2.14
Attack rating (Academico Viseu / Estoril)
0.98 / 0.57
Defence rating (Academico Viseu / Estoril)
0.77 / 1.12

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Academico Viseu vs Estoril score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 12.8% 5.4% 1.7% 0.3% 0.0% 1 17.8% 11.2% 2.8% 0.5% 0.1% 2 15.0% 8.1% 2.2% 0.4% 0.1% 3 8.0% 4.3% 1.2% 0.2% 0.0% 4+ 4.5% 2.5% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0%

Rows: Academico Viseu goals. Columns: Estoril goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Academico Viseu vs Estoril goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 87%
Over 1.5 64%
Over 2.5 36%
Over 3.5 17%
Both teams to score
34%
No goals (0–0)
13%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Academico Viseu vs Estoril

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Academico Viseu47%2.13
Draw27%3.65
Estoril26%3.90
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.536%2.77
Under 2.564%1.56
Both teams to scoreYes34%2.91
No66%1.52
Double chance1X (Academico Viseu or draw)74%1.34
12 (either side)73%1.38
X2 (draw or Estoril)53%1.88
Handicap -1Academico Viseu win by 2+35%2.85
Push (exactly one goal)27%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Academico Viseu and Estoril recent form

Academico Viseu 3W 1D 2L
Estoril 0W 1D 5L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Academico Viseu at home

Record (W-D-L)
1-0-2
Win rate
33%
Goals for / match
0.67
Goals against / match
1.67
Clean sheets
0 of 3
  • They have won 3 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
  • They average 1.8 goals per game on the road against 0.7 at home.
  • 45% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Estoril away

Record (W-D-L)
0-0-3
Win rate
0%
Goals for / match
0.33
Goals against / match
1.67
Clean sheets
0 of 3
  • They have won 0 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 0.4 goals per match.
  • They have failed to score in 4 of 7 matches.
  • 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: Academico Viseu at home only, Estoril away only.

Expected lineups

Academico Viseu lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 98 Ewerton
  2. 3 Miguel Brau
  3. 2 N. Michelis
  4. 41 A. Correia
  5. 75 Robinho
  6. 7 Luís Silva
  7. 8 C. Kahraman
  8. 31 João Guilherme
  9. 14 S. Messeguem
  10. 47 L. Gohi
  11. 33 André Clóvis

Bench: Marcos Lavín, Pedro Barcelos, André Ceitil, M. Bouldini, Á. Zamora, C. Ferreira, Tomás Domingos, Nils Mortimer, Rúben Pereira, Alejandro Mestanza, G. Costa, Paulinho

Estoril lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 1 Joel Robles
  2. 21 R. Jurišić
  3. 6 Xavi Sintes
  4. 5 A. Tsoungui
  5. 2 Ricard Sánchez
  6. 44 M. Robin
  7. 10 J. Holsgrove
  8. 35 S. Amissah
  9. 12 João Carvalho
  10. 99 R. Guitane
  11. 7 André Lacximicant

Bench: Fernando Medrano, Ferro, A. Camblan, N. Omerović, M. Turk, Peixinho, Tiago Parreira Parente, Pedro Carvalho, J. Arnolin, Tiago Brito

Academico Viseu vs Estoril head-to-head

Last 6 meetings: Academico Viseu 2 · draws 0 · Estoril 4.

Academico ViseuDrawsEstoril
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2022-12-01Academico Viseu3-2EstorilTaça da Liga
2021-02-16Estoril3-0Academico ViseuSegunda Liga
2020-09-24Academico Viseu0-2EstorilSegunda Liga
2019-11-03Estoril3-1Academico ViseuSegunda Liga
2019-05-05Estoril1-3Academico ViseuSegunda Liga
2018-11-18Academico Viseu1-2EstorilSegunda Liga

Other Matchday 8 fixtures

Before and after this match