Academico Viseu vs Estoril Prediction & Betting Tips 10/10/2026

Academico Viseu vs Estoril: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Academico Viseu	Draw	Estoril
Model	62%	26%	11%
Market	41%	27%	31%
Published	47%	27%	26%
Edge	+21%	-1%	-20%

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.60 vs 0.54.
Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
The market prices Academico Viseu below the model: +21.0 percentage points of edge.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.32, recorded 2026-10-06 — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update.

Academico Viseu vs Estoril odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Academico Viseu, 6 snapshots since 2026-10-04.

Opened 2.25Now 2.25 +0.00

Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
Selection	First	Latest	Move
Academico Viseu	2.25	2.25	+0.00
Draw	3.40	3.40	+0.00
Estoril	3.00	3.00	+0.00

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Academico Viseu and Estoril expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.60Academico Viseu

0.54Estoril

Total expected goals: 2.14
Attack rating (Academico Viseu / Estoril): 0.98 / 0.57
Defence rating (Academico Viseu / Estoril): 0.77 / 1.12

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Academico Viseu vs Estoril score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 12.8% 5.3% 1.7% 0.3% 0.0% 1 17.8% 11.2% 2.7% 0.5% 0.1% 2 15.1% 8.1% 2.2% 0.4% 0.1% 3 8.1% 4.3% 1.2% 0.2% 0.0% 4+ 4.6% 2.5% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0%

Rows: Academico Viseu goals. Columns: Estoril goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Academico Viseu vs Estoril goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 87%

Over 1.5 64%

Over 2.5 36%

Over 3.5 17%

Both teams to score: 34%
No goals (0–0): 13%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Academico Viseu vs Estoril

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Academico Viseu	47%	2.14
	Draw	27%	3.68
	Estoril	26%	3.83
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	36%	2.77
	Under 2.5	64%	1.57
Both teams to score	Yes	34%	2.92
	No	66%	1.52
Double chance	1X (Academico Viseu or draw)	74%	1.35
	12 (either side)	73%	1.37
	X2 (draw or Estoril)	53%	1.88
Handicap -1	Academico Viseu win by 2+	35%	2.83
	Push (exactly one goal)	27%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Compare the market for this pick

Where to bet on this match in Kenya

Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit

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Academico Viseu and Estoril recent form

Academico Viseu 3W 1D 2L

Estoril 0W 1D 5L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Academico Viseu at home

Record (W-D-L): 1-0-2
Win rate: 33%
Goals for / match: 0.67
Goals against / match: 1.67
Clean sheets: 0 of 3

They have won 2 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
They average 1.7 goals per game on the road against 0.7 at home.
53% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Estoril away

Record (W-D-L): 0-0-3
Win rate: 0%
Goals for / match: 0.33
Goals against / match: 1.67
Clean sheets: 0 of 3

They have won 0 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 0.3 goals per match.
They have failed to score in 4 of 6 matches.

League matches this season before kick-off: Academico Viseu at home only, Estoril away only.

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Prediction snapshot Academico Viseu to win Predicted score 1 – 0 C Bet on Academico Viseu