Updated

Primeira Liga · Matchday 8

Arouca vs Estrela

· Estádio Municipal de Arouca, Aruca· Referee Luis Carlos Mateus Filipe

Full time1 – 0

Alin prediction was Arouca to win

Cblended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 2 – 1

10% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
AroucaDrawEstrela

Arouca vs Estrela: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceAroucaDrawEstrela
Model55%23%22%
Market44%28%28%
Published47%27%27%
Edge+3%-1%-2%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.08 vs 1.26.
  • The market prices Arouca below our published probability: +2.8 percentage points of edge.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Arouca vs Estrela odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Arouca, 14 snapshots since 2026-10-05.

Opened 2.15Now 2.15 -0.00
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Arouca2.152.15-0.00
Draw3.353.40+0.05
Estrela3.203.33+0.13

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Arouca and Estrela expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

2.08Arouca
1.26Estrela
Total expected goals
3.34
Attack rating (Arouca / Estrela)
1.12 / 1.16
Defence rating (Arouca / Estrela)
0.88 / 1.27

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Arouca vs Estrela score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 4.5% 3.5% 2.8% 1.2% 0.5% 1 6.5% 10.2% 5.8% 2.5% 1.0% 2 7.7% 9.7% 6.1% 2.5% 1.1% 3 5.3% 6.7% 4.2% 1.8% 0.7% 4+ 4.5% 5.6% 3.5% 1.5% 0.6%

Rows: Arouca goals. Columns: Estrela goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Arouca vs Estrela goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 96%
Over 1.5 86%
Over 2.5 65%
Over 3.5 43%
Both teams to score
64%
No goals (0–0)
4%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Arouca vs Estrela

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Arouca47%2.14
Draw27%3.77
Estrela27%3.75
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.565%1.54
Under 2.535%2.84
Both teams to scoreYes64%1.57
No36%2.75
Double chance1X (Arouca or draw)73%1.36
12 (either side)73%1.36
X2 (draw or Estrela)53%1.88
Handicap -1Arouca win by 2+34%2.94
Push (exactly one goal)21%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Arouca and Estrela recent form

Arouca 2W 2D 2L
Estrela 2W 3D 1L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Arouca at home

Record (W-D-L)
2-0-1
Win rate
67%
Goals for / match
2.33
Goals against / match
1.00
Clean sheets
1 of 3
  • They have won 3 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
  • They average 2.3 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
  • They have kept 3 clean sheets in 7 matches.
  • 42% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Estrela away

Record (W-D-L)
1-2-0
Win rate
33%
Goals for / match
2.67
Goals against / match
2.33
Clean sheets
0 of 3
  • They have won 2 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
  • They average 2.7 goals per game on the road against 1.5 at home.

League matches this season before kick-off: Arouca at home only, Estrela away only.

Expected lineups

Arouca lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 12 I. de Arruabarrena
  2. 18 O. Lebedenko
  3. 3 José Fontán
  4. 15 Javi Sánchez
  5. 28 Tiago Esgaio
  6. 8 T. Fukui
  7. 6 E. van Ee
  8. 7 N. Djouahra
  9. 10 Pablo Gozálbez
  10. 19 A. Trezza
  11. 17 Barbero

Bench: J. Vinarčík, L. Shahar, Diogo Monteiro, B. Popović, F. Mayulu, Lee Hyun-Ju, G. Rukavina, Mateo Flores, D. Nandín, B. Mansilla, Mario Climent, Pedro Santos

Estrela lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 24 Léo Linck
  2. 55 Rafa Soares
  3. 30 Patrick Luan
  4. 5 S. Leković
  5. 21 M. Scholze
  6. 78 Santiago Serra
  7. 39 Eddy Doue
  8. 10 I. Stoica
  9. 14 L. Zvonarek
  10. 99 A. Marcus
  11. 37 L. Antonetti

Bench: L. Mincarelli Davin, Bernardo Schappo, K. Höög Jansson, Jefferson Encada, T. Moustier, R. Muteba, Diogo Pinto, E. Pedro Vanga, H. Poniewas, A. Chernev, Alisson, B. Souza

Arouca vs Estrela head-to-head

Last 6 meetings: Arouca 3 · draws 1 · Estrela 2.

AroucaDrawsEstrela
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-04-19Arouca1-0EstrelaPrimeira Liga
2025-12-07Estrela3-1AroucaPrimeira Liga
2025-04-19Arouca1-0EstrelaPrimeira Liga
2024-12-09Estrela2-1AroucaPrimeira Liga
2024-05-05Arouca0-0EstrelaPrimeira Liga
2023-12-28Estrela1-4AroucaPrimeira Liga

Other Matchday 8 fixtures

Before and after this match