CF Os Belenenses vs Arouca preview
In the Taça de Portugal match between CF Os Belenenses and Arouca, the 1X2 probabilities show CF Os Belenenses at 39%, a draw at 33%, and Arouca at 28%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, with a 13% chance, while the expected goals are 1.13 for CF Os Belenenses and 0.91 for Arouca.
The model suggests a 33% chance for Over 2.5 goals and a 42% chance for both teams to score. However, Arouca's recent form includes 3 draws in their last 5 matches, which could lead to a tighter game than expected. CF Os Belenenses has shown some inconsistency, with only 2 wins in their last 5 matches, which could also affect the outcome.
CF Os Belenenses vs Arouca: model vs market
| Source | CF Os Belenenses | Draw | Arouca |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 39% | 33% | 28% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 39% | 33% | 28% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
CF Os Belenenses and Arouca expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.04
- Attack rating (CF Os Belenenses / Arouca)
- 0.84 / 0.98
- Defence rating (CF Os Belenenses / Arouca)
- 0.62 / 0.78
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
CF Os Belenenses vs Arouca score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: CF Os Belenenses goals. Columns: Arouca goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
CF Os Belenenses vs Arouca goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 42%
- No goals (0–0)
- 14%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for CF Os Belenenses vs Arouca
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | CF Os Belenenses | 39% | 2.54 |
| Draw | 33% | 3.04 | |
| Arouca | 28% | 3.60 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 33% | 2.99 |
| Under 2.5 | 67% | 1.50 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 42% | 2.39 |
| No | 58% | 1.72 | |
| Double chance | 1X (CF Os Belenenses or draw) | 72% | 1.38 |
| 12 (either side) | 67% | 1.49 | |
| X2 (draw or Arouca) | 61% | 1.65 | |
| Handicap -1 | CF Os Belenenses win by 2+ | 17% | 5.89 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
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CF Os Belenenses and Arouca recent form
CF Os Belenenses
3W 1D 2L
Arouca
2W 2D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
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Before and after this match
- Arouca, previous: Arouca v Estrela analysis