Olhanense vs Oliveira Hospital Prediction & Betting Tips 18/10/2026

Olhanense vs Oliveira Hospital preview

In the Taça de Portugal match between Olhanense and Oliveira Hospital, the 1X2 probabilities show Olhanense at 42%, Oliveira Hospital at 31%, and a draw at 26%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, with a 9% chance according to our model.

The data suggests a strong possibility for Over 2.5 goals at 58% and both teams to score at 61%. However, the confidence grade is C, indicating uncertainty. If either team underperforms or if the match is more defensive than expected, these predictions could change.

Olhanense vs Oliveira Hospital: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Olhanense	Draw	Oliveira Hospital
Model	42%	26%	31%
Market	—	—	—
Published	42%	26%	31%
Edge	—	—	—

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

Olhanense and Oliveira Hospital expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.62Olhanense

1.37Oliveira Hospital

Total expected goals: 3.00
Attack rating (Olhanense / Oliveira Hospital): 0.94 / 1.10
Defence rating (Olhanense / Oliveira Hospital): 0.83 / 1.00

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Olhanense vs Oliveira Hospital score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 6.1% 5.7% 4.7% 2.2% 1.0% 1 7.0% 12.2% 7.6% 3.5% 1.6% 2 6.6% 9.0% 6.2% 2.8% 1.3% 3 3.6% 4.9% 3.4% 1.5% 0.7% 4+ 2.1% 2.9% 2.0% 0.9% 0.4%

Rows: Olhanense goals. Columns: Oliveira Hospital goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Olhanense vs Oliveira Hospital goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 94%

Over 1.5 81%

Over 2.5 58%

Over 3.5 35%

Both teams to score: 61%
No goals (0–0): 6%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Olhanense vs Oliveira Hospital

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Olhanense	42%	2.36
	Draw	26%	3.80
	Oliveira Hospital	31%	3.19
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	58%	1.73
	Under 2.5	42%	2.36
Both teams to score	Yes	61%	1.64
	No	39%	2.57
Double chance	1X (Olhanense or draw)	69%	1.46
	12 (either side)	74%	1.36
	X2 (draw or Oliveira Hospital)	58%	1.73
Handicap -1	Olhanense win by 2+	22%	4.50
	Push (exactly one goal)	20%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

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Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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