Tondela vs Alverca Prediction & Betting Tips 18/10/2026

Tondela vs Alverca preview

In the Taça de Portugal, Tondela faces Alverca with a 49% chance of winning compared to Alverca's 24%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, which our model predicts at 11%. Tondela's expected goals are 1.57, while Alverca's are lower at 1.02, indicating a potential edge for Tondela.

However, both teams to score stands at 52%, suggesting that Alverca could find the net. Recent form shows Tondela with three wins in their last six matches, while Alverca has two wins in the same period. With a confidence grade of C, the outcome could shift if Alverca performs better than expected.

Tondela vs Alverca: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Tondela	Draw	Alverca
Model	49%	28%	24%
Market	—	—	—
Published	49%	28%	24%
Edge	—	—	—

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.57 vs 1.02.
Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

Tondela and Alverca expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.57Tondela

1.02Alverca

Total expected goals: 2.59
Attack rating (Tondela / Alverca): 1.02 / 0.82
Defence rating (Tondela / Alverca): 0.83 / 0.89

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Tondela vs Alverca score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 8.7% 6.5% 3.9% 1.3% 0.4% 1 10.6% 13.2% 6.2% 2.1% 0.7% 2 9.2% 9.4% 4.8% 1.6% 0.5% 3 4.8% 4.9% 2.5% 0.9% 0.3% 4+ 2.7% 2.7% 1.4% 0.5% 0.2%

Rows: Tondela goals. Columns: Alverca goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Tondela vs Alverca goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 91%

Over 1.5 74%

Over 2.5 48%

Over 3.5 26%

Both teams to score: 52%
No goals (0–0): 9%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Tondela vs Alverca

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Tondela	49%	2.05
	Draw	28%	3.61
	Alverca	24%	4.25
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	48%	2.09
	Under 2.5	52%	1.92
Both teams to score	Yes	52%	1.93
	No	48%	2.08
Double chance	1X (Tondela or draw)	76%	1.31
	12 (either side)	72%	1.38
	X2 (draw or Alverca)	51%	1.95
Handicap -1	Tondela win by 2+	26%	3.86
	Push (exactly one goal)	23%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

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Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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