Lusitânia Lourosa vs Os Limianos Prediction & Betting Tips 18/10/2026

Lusitânia Lourosa vs Os Limianos preview

Lusitânia Lourosa faces Os Limianos with a 48% chance of winning compared to 27% for Os Limianos. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, which aligns with the expected goals of 1.74 for Lusitânia Lourosa and 1.26 for Os Limianos. There is a 58% probability of Over 2.5 goals, and both teams to score stands at 60%.

Lusitânia Lourosa is in strong recent form with four wins and a draw in their last six matches, while Os Limianos has two wins and one loss in their last three. The confidence grade is C, indicating some uncertainty in the predictions. Factors such as unexpected player performances or tactical changes could influence the outcome.

Lusitânia Lourosa vs Os Limianos: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Lusitânia Lourosa	Draw	Os Limianos
Model	48%	26%	27%
Market	—	—	—
Published	48%	26%	27%
Edge	—	—	—

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.74 vs 1.26.
Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

Lusitânia Lourosa and Os Limianos expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.74Lusitânia Lourosa

1.26Os Limianos

Total expected goals: 3.00
Attack rating (Lusitânia Lourosa / Os Limianos): 1.03 / 1.19
Defence rating (Lusitânia Lourosa / Os Limianos): 0.70 / 0.98

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Lusitânia Lourosa vs Os Limianos score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 6.1% 5.2% 3.9% 1.6% 0.7% 1 7.6% 12.0% 6.9% 2.9% 1.2% 2 7.6% 9.5% 6.0% 2.5% 1.0% 3 4.4% 5.5% 3.5% 1.5% 0.6% 4+ 2.8% 3.6% 2.3% 0.9% 0.4%

Rows: Lusitânia Lourosa goals. Columns: Os Limianos goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Lusitânia Lourosa vs Os Limianos goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 94%

Over 1.5 81%

Over 2.5 58%

Over 3.5 35%

Both teams to score: 60%
No goals (0–0): 6%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Lusitânia Lourosa vs Os Limianos

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Lusitânia Lourosa	48%	2.09
	Draw	26%	3.89
	Os Limianos	27%	3.77
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	58%	1.73
	Under 2.5	42%	2.37
Both teams to score	Yes	60%	1.66
	No	40%	2.51
Double chance	1X (Lusitânia Lourosa or draw)	73%	1.36
	12 (either side)	74%	1.35
	X2 (draw or Os Limianos)	52%	1.91
Handicap -1	Lusitânia Lourosa win by 2+	26%	3.78
	Push (exactly one goal)	21%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

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Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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