Lusitânia Lourosa vs Chaves

Lusitânia Lourosa vs Chaves: model vs market

• Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.52 vs 1.09.
• Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
• The market prices Lusitânia Lourosa below the model: +31.7 percentage points of edge.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.64, recorded 2026-10-06 — the top price across the 7 books we record, each at its own last update.

Lusitânia Lourosa vs Chaves odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Lusitânia Lourosa, 4 snapshots since 2026-10-05.

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Lusitânia Lourosa and Chaves expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

Total expected goals

3.62

Attack rating (Lusitânia Lourosa / Chaves)

1.29 / 1.10

Defence rating (Lusitânia Lourosa / Chaves)

0.85 / 1.55

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Lusitânia Lourosa vs Chaves score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

Rows: Lusitânia Lourosa goals. Columns: Chaves goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Lusitânia Lourosa vs Chaves goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Both teams to score

62%

No goals (0–0)

3%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

Lusitânia Lourosa and Chaves recent form

Lusitânia Lourosa WWWWDW 5W 1D 0L

Chaves LWWLDL 2W 1D 3L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

League matches this season before kick-off: Lusitânia Lourosa at home only, Chaves away only.