Updated

Segunda Liga · Matchday 7

Lusitânia Lourosa vs Chaves

· Estadio Do Lusitania, Lorosa· Referee David Rafael Oliveira da Silva

Full time1 – 1

Alin prediction was Lusitânia Lourosa to win

Cblended with market oddsMissed

Predicted score 2 – 1

9% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Lusitânia LourosaDrawChaves

Lusitânia Lourosa vs Chaves: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceLusitânia LourosaDrawChaves
Model67%19%14%
Market41%30%29%
Published48%27%26%
Edge+7%-3%-4%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.51 vs 1.10.
  • Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
  • The market prices Lusitânia Lourosa below our published probability: +6.6 percentage points of edge.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Lusitânia Lourosa vs Chaves odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Lusitânia Lourosa, 13 snapshots since 2026-10-05.

Opened 2.56Now 2.25 -0.31
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Lusitânia Lourosa2.562.25-0.31
Draw2.903.13+0.23
Chaves2.763.14+0.38

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Lusitânia Lourosa and Chaves expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

2.51Lusitânia Lourosa
1.10Chaves
Total expected goals
3.61
Attack rating (Lusitânia Lourosa / Chaves)
1.29 / 1.10
Defence rating (Lusitânia Lourosa / Chaves)
0.86 / 1.55

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Lusitânia Lourosa vs Chaves score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 3.5% 2.2% 1.6% 0.6% 0.2% 1 6.1% 8.2% 4.1% 1.5% 0.5% 2 8.5% 9.4% 5.1% 1.9% 0.7% 3 7.2% 7.8% 4.3% 1.6% 0.5% 4+ 8.2% 9.0% 4.9% 1.8% 0.6%

Rows: Lusitânia Lourosa goals. Columns: Chaves goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Lusitânia Lourosa vs Chaves goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 97%
Over 1.5 88%
Over 2.5 70%
Over 3.5 49%
Both teams to score
62%
No goals (0–0)
3%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Lusitânia Lourosa vs Chaves

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Lusitânia Lourosa48%2.10
Draw27%3.73
Chaves26%3.91
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.570%1.43
Under 2.530%3.32
Both teams to scoreYes62%1.61
No38%2.63
Double chance1X (Lusitânia Lourosa or draw)74%1.34
12 (either side)73%1.37
X2 (draw or Chaves)52%1.91
Handicap -1Lusitânia Lourosa win by 2+47%2.15
Push (exactly one goal)21%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Lusitânia Lourosa and Chaves recent form

Lusitânia Lourosa 5W 1D 0L
Chaves 2W 1D 3L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Lusitânia Lourosa at home

Record (W-D-L)
2-1-0
Win rate
67%
Goals for / match
2.00
Goals against / match
1.00
Clean sheets
1 of 3
  • They have won 5 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
  • They have kept 3 clean sheets in 6 matches.

Chaves away

Record (W-D-L)
0-0-3
Win rate
0%
Goals for / match
0.33
Goals against / match
2.33
Clean sheets
0 of 3
  • They have won 1 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
  • They average 1.3 goals per game at home against 0.3 on the road.

League matches this season before kick-off: Lusitânia Lourosa at home only, Chaves away only.

Expected lineups

Lusitânia Lourosa lineup · 4-3-3

  1. 29 Brian Araújo
  2. 52 F. Machado
  3. 22 Bruno Faria
  4. 4 D. Collard
  5. 24 Ricardinho
  6. 27 Fabinho
  7. 20 Diogo Paulo
  8. 12 Arsénio
  9. 21 Paulité
  10. 17 João Santos
  11. 19 Saliou

Bench: Gabriel Souza, Silvério, António Montez, João Silva, M. Tablante, Luís Rocha, Guilherme Soares, Daniel, Miguel Teixeira

Chaves lineup · 4-3-3

  1. 1 João Valido
  2. 14 N. Araújo
  3. 34 Ricardo Alves
  4. 33 Tiago Simões
  5. 23 Léo Alabá
  6. 10 André Rodrigues
  7. 19 Gilberto García
  8. 42 Aílson Tavares
  9. 7 R. Esajas
  10. 30 Costinha

Bench: Kiko Vilas Boas, João Teixeira, Marcos Maia, Pedro Pelágio, I. Vázquez, D. Yearwood, Roberto, J. Mendes, M. Tounkara, M. Gudžulić, GB

Lusitânia Lourosa vs Chaves head-to-head

Last 3 meetings: Lusitânia Lourosa 0 · draws 2 · Chaves 1.

Lusitânia LourosaDrawsChaves
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-01-24Chaves2-2Lusitânia LourosaSegunda Liga
2025-08-16Lusitânia Lourosa2-2ChavesSegunda Liga
2024-10-20Chaves2-0Lusitânia LourosaTaça de Portugal

Other Matchday 7 fixtures

Before and after this match