Farense vs Feirense: model vs market
| Source | Farense | Draw | Feirense |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 68% | 25% | 7% |
| Market | 50% | 27% | 23% |
| Published | 54% | 27% | 19% |
| Edge | +18% | -2% | -16% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.60 vs 0.36.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
- The market prices Farense below the model: +17.8 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.90, recorded — the top price across the 7 books we record, each at its own last update.
Farense vs Feirense odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Farense, 4 snapshots since 2026-10-05.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Farense | 1.85 | 1.84 | -0.01 |
| Draw | 3.35 | 3.35 | +0.00 |
| Feirense | 4.05 | 4.05 | -0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Farense and Feirense expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 1.96
- Attack rating (Farense / Feirense)
- 1.17 / 0.54
- Defence rating (Farense / Feirense)
- 0.58 / 1.08
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Farense vs Feirense score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Farense goals. Columns: Feirense goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Farense vs Feirense goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 25%
- No goals (0–0)
- 15%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Farense vs Feirense
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Farense | 54% | 1.84 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.73 | |
| Feirense | 19% | 5.32 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 31% | 3.20 |
| Under 2.5 | 69% | 1.45 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 25% | 3.99 |
| No | 75% | 1.33 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Farense or draw) | 81% | 1.23 |
| 12 (either side) | 73% | 1.37 | |
| X2 (draw or Feirense) | 46% | 2.19 | |
| Handicap -1 | Farense win by 2+ | 39% | 2.57 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 29% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 4 |  |
200% first deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Farense and Feirense recent form
Farense
3W 2D 1L
Feirense
0W 0D 6L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Farense at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-1-0
- Win rate
- 67%
- Goals for / match
- 2.33
- Goals against / match
- 0.67
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 3
- They have won 2 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- 50% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Feirense away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-0-3
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.33
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 3
- They have won 0 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 0.2 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 5 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Farense at home only, Feirense away only.
Farense vs Feirense head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Farense 0 · draws 1 · Feirense 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-04 | Farense | 0-1 | Feirense | Segunda Liga |
| 2025-11-07 | Feirense | 0-0 | Farense | Segunda Liga |
Other Matchday 7 fixtures
- Penafiel v AVS — match page 2026-10-09
- Tondela v Torreense — match page 2026-10-10
- Amarante vs Portimonense — team news & stats 2026-10-10
- Leixoes vs FC Porto B — team news & stats 2026-10-10
- Vizela vs Sporting CP B 2026-10-10
- Lusitânia Lourosa vs Chaves 2026-10-11
- União de Leiria v Academica — match page 2026-10-11
- Benfica B vs Felgueiras 1932 — team news & stats 2026-10-12