Updated

Segunda Liga · Matchday 7

Farense vs Feirense

· Estádio de São Luís, Faro· Referee Antonio Nobre

Full time2 – 1

Alin prediction was Farense to win

Cblended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 1 – 0

22% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
FarenseDrawFeirense

Farense vs Feirense: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceFarenseDrawFeirense
Model67%25%7%
Market55%26%19%
Published58%26%16%
Edge+3%0%-3%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.59 vs 0.36.
  • Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
  • The market prices Farense below our published probability: +3.1 percentage points of edge.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Farense vs Feirense odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Farense, 13 snapshots since 2026-10-05.

Opened 1.85Now 1.67 -0.18
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Farense1.851.67-0.18
Draw3.353.60+0.25
Feirense4.054.80+0.75

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Farense and Feirense expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.59Farense
0.36Feirense
Total expected goals
1.95
Attack rating (Farense / Feirense)
1.17 / 0.54
Defence rating (Farense / Feirense)
0.58 / 1.08

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Farense vs Feirense score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 15.0% 4.3% 0.9% 0.1% 0.0% 1 21.7% 9.0% 1.5% 0.2% 0.0% 2 17.9% 6.5% 1.2% 0.1% 0.0% 3 9.5% 3.5% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 4+ 5.4% 2.0% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0%

Rows: Farense goals. Columns: Feirense goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Farense vs Feirense goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 85%
Over 1.5 59%
Over 2.5 31%
Over 3.5 13%
Both teams to score
25%
No goals (0–0)
15%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Farense vs Feirense

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Farense58%1.72
Draw26%3.91
Feirense16%6.16
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.531%3.22
Under 2.569%1.45
Both teams to scoreYes25%3.98
No75%1.34
Double chance1X (Farense or draw)84%1.19
12 (either side)74%1.34
X2 (draw or Feirense)42%2.39
Handicap -1Farense win by 2+39%2.59
Push (exactly one goal)29%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Farense and Feirense recent form

Farense 3W 2D 1L
Feirense 0W 0D 6L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Farense at home

Record (W-D-L)
2-1-0
Win rate
67%
Goals for / match
2.33
Goals against / match
0.67
Clean sheets
1 of 3
  • They have won 3 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
  • They average 2.3 goals per game at home against 1.3 on the road.
  • 45% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Feirense away

Record (W-D-L)
0-0-3
Win rate
0%
Goals for / match
0.00
Goals against / match
1.33
Clean sheets
0 of 3
  • They have won 0 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 0.2 goals per match.
  • They have failed to score in 5 of 6 matches.

League matches this season before kick-off: Farense at home only, Feirense away only.

Expected lineups

Farense lineup · 4-3-3

  1. 97 F. Buntić
  2. 22 Toni Herrero
  3. 37 Gonçalo Silva
  4. 44 N. Zolotić
  5. 78 Alex Pinto
  6. 10 S. Singh
  7. 29 Cláudio Falcão
  8. 27 Mattheus Oliveira
  9. 7 João Resende
  10. 11 Nélson Oliveira
  11. 17 André Candeias

Bench: J. Tånnander, Lucas D'Agrella, Rodrigo Borges, Derick Poloni, Miguel Menino, Gabriel Barbosa, J. Diazongua Nfinigui, Bruno Santos, L. Oliveira, Dário Miranda, Rafael Teixeira, Edi Semedo

Feirense lineup · 3-4-3

  1. 26 Diego Altube
  2. 40 João Queirós
  3. 4 Antonio Leal
  4. 14 Pedro Pinto
  5. 16 André Lopes
  6. 24 M. Diaby
  7. 77 Gui Meira
  8. 2 Luiz Gustavo
  9. 90 Luisinho
  10. 25 Henrique Pereira
  11. 20 João Oliveira

Bench: Francisco Meixedo, Kaiquy, Diogo Mendes, J. Monteiro, Diego Moreno, Alexandre Guedes, Pedro Henrique

Farense vs Feirense head-to-head

Last 7 meetings: Farense 2 · draws 2 · Feirense 3.

FarenseDrawsFeirense
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-04-04Farense0-1FeirenseSegunda Liga
2025-11-07Feirense0-0FarenseSegunda Liga
2023-04-29Feirense1-2FarenseSegunda Liga
2022-11-12Farense0-0FeirenseSegunda Liga
2022-02-08Feirense4-1FarenseSegunda Liga
2021-08-29Farense0-1FeirenseSegunda Liga
2019-12-15Farense1-0FeirenseSegunda Liga

Other Matchday 7 fixtures

Before and after this match