Feirense vs Benfica B preview
In the upcoming match between Feirense and Benfica B, the 1X2 probabilities show Feirense at 32%, a draw at 30%, and Benfica B at 38%. The most likely scoreline according to our model is 0-1, with an 18% chance. Feirense has struggled recently, losing their last 6 matches, while Benfica B has shown better form with 4 wins in their last 6 games.
The expected goals for Feirense is 0.62, while Benfica B has a higher expected goals figure of 1.15. This disparity in expected goals suggests that Benfica B is more likely to score. However, if Feirense can improve their performance, they could challenge the predicted outcome. The probabilities for Over 2.5 goals stand at 26%, and both teams to score is at 33%.
Feirense vs Benfica B: model vs market
| Source | Feirense | Draw | Benfica B |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 19% | 34% | 47% |
| Market | 36% | 29% | 36% |
| Published | 31% | 30% | 39% |
| Edge | -4% | +1% | +3% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.15 vs 0.62.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
- The market prices Benfica B below our published probability: +3.0 percentage points of edge.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.70, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +4.0% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Feirense vs Benfica B odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Benfica B, 13 snapshots since 2026-10-17.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Feirense | 2.52 | 2.58 | +0.06 |
| Draw | 3.18 | 3.19 | +0.01 |
| Benfica B | 2.58 | 2.58 | +0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Feirense and Benfica B expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 1.78
- Attack rating (Feirense / Benfica B)
- 0.58 / 0.88
- Defence rating (Feirense / Benfica B)
- 1.12 / 0.87
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Feirense vs Benfica B score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Feirense goals. Columns: Benfica B goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Feirense vs Benfica B goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 33%
- No goals (0–0)
- 18%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Feirense vs Benfica B
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Feirense | 31% | 3.18 |
| Draw | 30% | 3.33 | |
| Benfica B | 39% | 2.60 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 26% | 3.80 |
| Under 2.5 | 74% | 1.36 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 33% | 3.03 |
| No | 67% | 1.49 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Feirense or draw) | 61% | 1.63 |
| 12 (either side) | 70% | 1.43 | |
| X2 (draw or Benfica B) | 69% | 1.46 | |
| Handicap -1 | Benfica B win by 2+ | 21% | 4.72 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 26% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 2 |  |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Feirense and Benfica B recent form
Feirense
0W 0D 6L
Benfica B
3W 1D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Feirense at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-1-2
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.33
- Goals against / match
- 1.33
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 3
- They have won 0 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 0.3 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 7 matches.
Benfica B away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-0-1
- Win rate
- 67%
- Goals for / match
- 1.67
- Goals against / match
- 0.67
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 3
- They have won 4 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They average 1.7 goals per game on the road against 0.8 at home.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 7 matches.
- 41% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Feirense at home only, Benfica B away only.
Feirense vs Benfica B head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Feirense 5 · draws 0 · Benfica B 5.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-09 | Benfica B | 3-0 | Feirense | Segunda Liga |
| 2025-10-25 | Feirense | 0-2 | Benfica B | Segunda Liga |
| 2025-07-26 | Feirense | 5-2 | Benfica B | Friendlies Clubs |
| 2025-02-07 | Benfica B | 0-1 | Feirense | Segunda Liga |
| 2024-09-01 | Feirense | 2-3 | Benfica B | Segunda Liga |
| 2024-03-02 | Feirense | 1-2 | Benfica B | Segunda Liga |
| 2023-10-08 | Benfica B | 2-3 | Feirense | Segunda Liga |
| 2023-05-13 | Feirense | 1-2 | Benfica B | Segunda Liga |
| 2023-01-08 | Benfica B | 3-6 | Feirense | Segunda Liga |
| 2022-05-07 | Benfica B | 1-2 | Feirense | Segunda Liga |
Other Matchday 8 fixtures
- Chaves vs Vizela — team news & stats 2026-10-23
- Academica v Leixoes — match page 2026-10-24
- Sporting CP B vs Portimonense 2026-10-24
- Farense vs Penafiel 2026-10-24
- AVS vs Tondela 2026-10-25
- Felgueiras 1932 v Lusitânia Lourosa — match page 2026-10-25
- FC Porto B vs União de Leiria — team news & stats 2026-10-25
- Torreense vs Amarante — team news & stats 2026-10-26
Before and after this match
- Feirense, previous: Farense vs Feirense: odds and pick
- Benfica B, previous: Benfica B v Felgueiras 1932 analysis