Chaves vs Vizela preview
In the Segunda Liga match between Chaves and Vizela, the 1X2 probabilities show Chaves at 36% and Vizela at 35%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, with a 9% chance according to our model. Both teams to score has a 52% probability, while Over 2.5 goals stands at 45%.
Chaves has had a mixed recent form with W-D-L-W-W-L, while Vizela is slightly more consistent with L-W-D-W-W-D. The expected goals are close, with Chaves at 1.25 and Vizela at 1.23. The confidence grade for this match is C, indicating some uncertainty in the outcome. A draw or a high-scoring match could challenge the predictions.
Chaves vs Vizela: model vs market
| Source | Chaves | Draw | Vizela |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 37% | 31% | 32% |
| Market | 36% | 29% | 35% |
| Published | 37% | 29% | 34% |
| Edge | 0% | 0% | -1% |
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.65, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -2.7% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Chaves vs Vizela odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Chaves, 12 snapshots since 2026-10-17.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chaves | 2.53 | 2.51 | -0.02 |
| Draw | 3.18 | 3.20 | +0.02 |
| Vizela | 2.66 | 2.63 | -0.03 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Chaves and Vizela expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.34
- Attack rating (Chaves / Vizela)
- 1.17 / 0.70
- Defence rating (Chaves / Vizela)
- 1.37 / 0.84
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Chaves vs Vizela score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Chaves goals. Columns: Vizela goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Chaves vs Vizela goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 49%
- No goals (0–0)
- 11%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Chaves vs Vizela
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Chaves | 37% | 2.72 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.43 | |
| Vizela | 34% | 2.93 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 42% | 2.41 |
| Under 2.5 | 58% | 1.71 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 49% | 2.05 |
| No | 51% | 1.96 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Chaves or draw) | 66% | 1.52 |
| 12 (either side) | 71% | 1.41 | |
| X2 (draw or Vizela) | 63% | 1.58 | |
| Handicap -1 | Chaves win by 2+ | 17% | 5.97 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 2 |  |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Chaves and Vizela recent form
Chaves
3W 1D 2L
Vizela
3W 1D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Chaves at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-1
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 1.33
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 3
- They have won 1 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They average 1.3 goals per game at home against 0.5 on the road.
Vizela away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-1
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 1.67
- Goals against / match
- 1.33
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 3
- They have won 3 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They average 1.7 goals per game on the road against 0.5 at home.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 7 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 7 matches.
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Chaves at home only, Vizela away only.
Chaves vs Vizela head-to-head
Last 9 meetings: Chaves 4 · draws 2 · Vizela 3.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-18 | Vizela | 1-0 | Chaves | Friendlies Clubs |
| 2026-02-28 | Vizela | 3-2 | Chaves | Segunda Liga |
| 2025-10-04 | Chaves | 1-0 | Vizela | Segunda Liga |
| 2025-04-05 | Chaves | 1-2 | Vizela | Segunda Liga |
| 2024-11-08 | Vizela | 0-1 | Chaves | Segunda Liga |
| 2024-04-15 | Vizela | 0-1 | Chaves | Primeira Liga |
| 2023-12-01 | Chaves | 2-1 | Vizela | Primeira Liga |
| 2023-02-10 | Vizela | 0-0 | Chaves | Primeira Liga |
| 2022-11-22 | Vizela | 2-2 | Chaves | Taça da Liga |
Other Matchday 8 fixtures
- Academica v Leixoes — match page 2026-10-24
- Sporting CP B vs Portimonense 2026-10-24
- Feirense v Benfica B — match page 2026-10-24
- Farense vs Penafiel 2026-10-24
- AVS vs Tondela 2026-10-25
- Felgueiras 1932 v Lusitânia Lourosa — match page 2026-10-25
- FC Porto B vs União de Leiria — team news & stats 2026-10-25
- Torreense vs Amarante — team news & stats 2026-10-26
Before and after this match
- Chaves, previous: Chaves vs Os Marialvas prediction
- Vizela, previous: Atlético CP v Vizela analysis