AVS vs Tondela preview
In the Segunda Liga fixture between AVS and Tondela, the 1X2 probabilities show Tondela at 39%, AVS at 30%, and a draw at 31%. The most likely scoreline is 0-1, with a 12% chance. AVS has an expected goals figure of 1.03, while Tondela is slightly ahead at 1.06.
Both teams to score has a 43% probability, while Over 2.5 goals stands at 35%. AVS's recent form shows 4 wins and a draw in their last 6 matches, while Tondela has 5 wins and 1 loss in the same timeframe. However, the confidence grade is C, indicating uncertainty about the outcome.
AVS vs Tondela: model vs market
| Source | AVS | Draw | Tondela |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 33% | 33% | 34% |
| Market | 27% | 28% | 45% |
| Published | 28% | 29% | 42% |
| Edge | +2% | +1% | -3% |
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 4 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.12, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -10.3% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
AVS vs Tondela odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Tondela, 9 snapshots since 2026-10-19.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| AVS | 3.18 | 3.43 | +0.25 |
| Draw | 3.06 | 3.25 | +0.19 |
| Tondela | 2.25 | 2.04 | -0.21 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
AVS and Tondela expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.09
- Attack rating (AVS / Tondela)
- 1.07 / 1.28
- Defence rating (AVS / Tondela)
- 0.71 / 0.77
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
AVS vs Tondela score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: AVS goals. Columns: Tondela goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
AVS vs Tondela goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 43%
- No goals (0–0)
- 14%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for AVS vs Tondela
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | AVS | 28% | 3.53 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.41 | |
| Tondela | 42% | 2.36 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 35% | 2.88 |
| Under 2.5 | 65% | 1.53 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 43% | 2.31 |
| No | 57% | 1.77 | |
| Double chance | 1X (AVS or draw) | 58% | 1.73 |
| 12 (either side) | 71% | 1.42 | |
| X2 (draw or Tondela) | 72% | 1.40 | |
| Handicap -1 | Tondela win by 2+ | 14% | 7.18 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
AVS and Tondela recent form
AVS
4W 1D 1L
Tondela
5W 0D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
AVS at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-1
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 0.67
- Goals against / match
- 0.33
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 3
- They have won 1 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They average 1.3 goals per game on the road against 0.7 at home.
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Tondela away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-0-2
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 0.67
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 3
- They have won 3 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They average 1.7 goals per game at home against 0.7 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 6 matches.
- 30% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: AVS at home only, Tondela away only.
AVS vs Tondela head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: AVS 0 · draws 2 · Tondela 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-21 | Tondela | 0-0 | AVS | Primeira Liga |
| 2025-11-02 | AVS | 2-2 | Tondela | Primeira Liga |
Other Matchday 8 fixtures
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Before and after this match
- AVS, previous: AVS vs Moreirense: odds and pick
- Tondela, previous: Tondela v Alverca analysis