Academica vs Leixoes preview
In the match between Academica and Leixoes, the 1X2 probabilities show Academica at 32%, Leixoes at 40%, and a draw at 28%. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, with a 9% chance. Leixoes has a slight edge in expected goals at 1.66 compared to Academica's 1.44.
Both teams to score stands at 63%, while Over 2.5 goals is at 60%. Academica's recent form shows 3 wins and 3 losses, while Leixoes has 2 wins, 1 draw, and 3 losses. The confidence grade for this match is C, indicating some uncertainty. Factors like a sudden change in team performance could affect these predictions.
Academica vs Leixoes: model vs market
| Source | Academica | Draw | Leixoes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 32% | 26% | 42% |
| Market | 33% | 29% | 39% |
| Published | 33% | 28% | 40% |
| Edge | 0% | -1% | +1% |
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.46, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -2.6% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Academica vs Leixoes odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Leixoes, 15 snapshots since 2026-10-17.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Academica | 2.77 | 2.83 | +0.06 |
| Draw | 3.13 | 3.24 | +0.11 |
| Leixoes | 2.42 | 2.38 | -0.04 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Academica and Leixoes expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.10
- Attack rating (Academica / Leixoes)
- 1.35 / 1.24
- Defence rating (Academica / Leixoes)
- 1.15 / 0.85
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Academica vs Leixoes score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Academica goals. Columns: Leixoes goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Academica vs Leixoes goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 63%
- No goals (0–0)
- 6%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Academica vs Leixoes
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Academica | 33% | 3.07 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.59 | |
| Leixoes | 40% | 2.53 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 60% | 1.67 |
| Under 2.5 | 40% | 2.49 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 63% | 1.59 |
| No | 37% | 2.69 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Academica or draw) | 60% | 1.66 |
| 12 (either side) | 72% | 1.39 | |
| X2 (draw or Leixoes) | 67% | 1.48 | |
| Handicap -1 | Leixoes win by 2+ | 22% | 4.52 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Academica and Leixoes recent form
Academica
3W 0D 3L
Leixoes
3W 1D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Academica at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-0-2
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 0.33
- Goals against / match
- 1.67
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 3
- They have won 4 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 2.2 goals per game on the road against 0.3 at home.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 7 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
Leixoes away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-1
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 0.67
- Goals against / match
- 0.33
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 3
- They have won 3 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 0.7 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 7 matches.
- 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Academica at home only, Leixoes away only.
Expected lineups
Academica lineup · 4-3-3
- 12 Victor Braga
- 3 Ricardo Teixeira
- 20 J. Sinisterra
- 5 Leandro Silva
- 25 L. Pierre
- 19 Afonso Rodrigues
- 92 A. Coundoul
- 8 K. Zohi
Bench: Nuno Macedo, Martim Tavares, I. Faure, Kauan, Marcos Paulo, Hélder Lopes, Rui Gomes, H. Nunes, Ni, João Oliveira, Carlos Alves
Leixoes lineup · 4-4-2
- 51 I. Stefanović
- 30 Serif Nhaga
- 4 Matheus Costa
- 63 H. Faria
- 77 Paulinho
- 10 Rafael Barbosa
- 6 A. Balde
- 22 Cláudio Vítor Rodrigues Araújo
- 7 Salvador Agra
- 35 B. Rochez
- 9 Bica
Bench: Fernando Fonseca, Alysson Silva, Simãozinho, Arthur Baggio, Caio Secco, Luccas Feitosa, S. Commey, Kaique, Jamerson, João Assunção, Rúben Pina
Academica vs Leixoes head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Academica 5 · draws 3 · Leixoes 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-01-30 | Academica | 1-0 | Leixoes | Segunda Liga |
| 2021-08-22 | Leixoes | 2-1 | Academica | Segunda Liga |
| 2021-05-22 | Leixoes | 1-2 | Academica | Segunda Liga |
| 2021-01-26 | Academica | 1-1 | Leixoes | Segunda Liga |
| 2020-01-26 | Leixoes | 1-1 | Academica | Segunda Liga |
| 2019-08-11 | Academica | 3-2 | Leixoes | Segunda Liga |
| 2019-04-27 | Leixoes | 1-1 | Academica | Segunda Liga |
| 2018-12-30 | Academica | 2-1 | Leixoes | Segunda Liga |
| 2018-03-14 | Academica | 2-1 | Leixoes | Segunda Liga |
| 2017-10-21 | Leixoes | 1-0 | Academica | Segunda Liga |
Other Matchday 8 fixtures
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- Sporting CP B vs Portimonense 2026-10-24
- Feirense v Benfica B — match page 2026-10-24
- Farense vs Penafiel 2026-10-24
- AVS vs Tondela 2026-10-25
- Felgueiras 1932 v Lusitânia Lourosa — match page 2026-10-25
- FC Porto B vs União de Leiria — team news & stats 2026-10-25
- Torreense vs Amarante — team news & stats 2026-10-26
Before and after this match
- Academica, previous: Academica vs Amarante: odds and pick
- Leixoes, previous: Vianense vs Leixoes prediction