Academica vs Amarante Prediction & Betting Tips 17/10/2026

Academica vs Amarante preview

In the Taça de Portugal, Academica faces Amarante with 1X2 probabilities of 37% for Academica, 29% for a draw, and 34% for Amarante. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, which has a 9% chance of occurring. Both teams to score stands at 54%, while Over 2.5 goals is at 48%.

Expect a close match, as expected goals are 1.33 for Academica and 1.28 for Amarante. Recent form shows Academica with two wins in their last six matches, while Amarante has one win in their last six. A draw or a high-scoring game could change the expected outcome. The confidence grade is C, indicating uncertainty in the predictions.

Academica vs Amarante: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Academica	Draw	Amarante
Model	37%	29%	34%
Market	—	—	—
Published	37%	29%	34%
Edge	—	—	—

Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

Academica and Amarante expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.33Academica

1.28Amarante

Total expected goals: 2.61
Attack rating (Academica / Amarante): 0.98 / 0.84
Defence rating (Academica / Amarante): 1.01 / 0.79

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Academica vs Amarante score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 8.6% 8.1% 6.0% 2.6% 1.1% 1 8.5% 13.8% 8.0% 3.4% 1.4% 2 6.5% 8.3% 5.3% 2.3% 1.0% 3 2.9% 3.7% 2.4% 1.0% 0.4% 4+ 1.3% 1.7% 1.1% 0.5% 0.2%

Rows: Academica goals. Columns: Amarante goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Academica vs Amarante goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 91%

Over 1.5 75%

Over 2.5 48%

Over 3.5 27%

Both teams to score: 54%
No goals (0–0): 9%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Academica vs Amarante

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Academica	37%	2.71
	Draw	29%	3.47
	Amarante	34%	2.91
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	48%	2.06
	Under 2.5	52%	1.94
Both teams to score	Yes	54%	1.84
	No	46%	2.19
Double chance	1X (Academica or draw)	66%	1.52
	12 (either side)	71%	1.40
	X2 (draw or Amarante)	63%	1.58
Handicap -1	Academica win by 2+	17%	5.79
	Push (exactly one goal)	20%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

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Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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