União de Leiria vs Academica Prediction & Betting Tips 11/10/2026

União de Leiria vs Academica: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	União de Leiria	Draw	Academica
Model	51%	24%	25%
Market	48%	27%	25%
Published	49%	26%	25%
Edge	+3%	-3%	0%

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.94 vs 1.32.
Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
The market prices União de Leiria below the model: +2.9 percentage points of edge.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.02, recorded 2026-10-06 — the top price across the 8 books we record, each at its own last update.

União de Leiria vs Academica odds movement

Median bookmaker price on União de Leiria, 4 snapshots since 2026-10-05.

Opened 1.90Now 1.90 +0.00

Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
Selection	First	Latest	Move
União de Leiria	1.90	1.90	+0.00
Draw	3.40	3.40	+0.00
Academica	3.81	3.60	-0.21

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

União de Leiria and Academica expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.94União de Leiria

1.32Academica

Total expected goals: 3.26
Attack rating (União de Leiria / Academica): 1.25 / 1.17
Defence rating (União de Leiria / Academica): 0.97 / 1.22

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

União de Leiria vs Academica score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 4.8% 4.1% 3.4% 1.5% 0.7% 1 6.5% 10.8% 6.5% 2.9% 1.3% 2 7.2% 9.5% 6.3% 2.8% 1.2% 3 4.7% 6.2% 4.1% 1.8% 0.8% 4+ 3.5% 4.7% 3.1% 1.4% 0.6%

Rows: União de Leiria goals. Columns: Academica goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

União de Leiria vs Academica goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 95%

Over 1.5 85%

Over 2.5 63%

Over 3.5 41%

Both teams to score: 64%
No goals (0–0): 5%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for União de Leiria vs Academica

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	União de Leiria	49%	2.06
	Draw	26%	3.83
	Academica	25%	3.96
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	63%	1.58
	Under 2.5	37%	2.72
Both teams to score	Yes	64%	1.57
	No	36%	2.76
Double chance	1X (União de Leiria or draw)	75%	1.34
	12 (either side)	74%	1.35
	X2 (draw or Academica)	51%	1.95
Handicap -1	União de Leiria win by 2+	30%	3.35
	Push (exactly one goal)	21%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Compare the market for this pick

Where to bet on this match in Kenya

Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit

All betting sites

#	Welcome offer	Why it is here	Visit
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.

União de Leiria and Academica recent form

União de Leiria 4W 1D 1L

Academica 3W 0D 3L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

União de Leiria at home

Record (W-D-L): 2-0-1
Win rate: 67%
Goals for / match: 1.33
Goals against / match: 0.67
Clean sheets: 2 of 3

They have won 3 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.

Academica away

Record (W-D-L): 2-0-1
Win rate: 67%
Goals for / match: 2.33
Goals against / match: 1.67
Clean sheets: 1 of 3

They have won 3 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.

League matches this season before kick-off: União de Leiria at home only, Academica away only.

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Prediction snapshot União de Leiria to win Predicted score 2 – 1 C Bet on União de Leiria