Updated

Segunda Liga · Matchday 7

União de Leiria vs Academica

· Estádio Dr. Magalhães Pessoa, Leiria· Referee Miguel Andre Monteiro Fonseca

Full time0 – 2

Alin prediction was União de Leiria to win

Cblended with market oddsMissed

Predicted score 2 – 1

10% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
União de LeiriaDrawAcademica

União de Leiria vs Academica: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceUnião de LeiriaDrawAcademica
Model51%24%25%
Market48%27%25%
Published49%26%25%
Edge+1%-1%0%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.93 vs 1.33.
  • Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

União de Leiria vs Academica odds movement

Median bookmaker price on União de Leiria, 14 snapshots since 2026-10-05.

Opened 1.90Now 1.91 +0.01
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
União de Leiria1.901.91+0.01
Draw3.403.40+0.00
Academica3.813.67-0.13

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

União de Leiria and Academica expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.93União de Leiria
1.33Academica
Total expected goals
3.26
Attack rating (União de Leiria / Academica)
1.25 / 1.17
Defence rating (União de Leiria / Academica)
0.97 / 1.22

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

União de Leiria vs Academica score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 4.8% 4.1% 3.4% 1.5% 0.7% 1 6.4% 10.8% 6.5% 2.9% 1.3% 2 7.2% 9.5% 6.3% 2.8% 1.2% 3 4.6% 6.1% 4.1% 1.8% 0.8% 4+ 3.5% 4.6% 3.1% 1.4% 0.6%

Rows: União de Leiria goals. Columns: Academica goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

União de Leiria vs Academica goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 95%
Over 1.5 85%
Over 2.5 63%
Over 3.5 41%
Both teams to score
64%
No goals (0–0)
5%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for União de Leiria vs Academica

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2União de Leiria49%2.05
Draw26%3.81
Academica25%3.99
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.563%1.58
Under 2.537%2.72
Both teams to scoreYes64%1.57
No36%2.76
Double chance1X (União de Leiria or draw)75%1.33
12 (either side)74%1.36
X2 (draw or Academica)51%1.95
Handicap -1União de Leiria win by 2+30%3.38
Push (exactly one goal)21%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

União de Leiria and Academica recent form

União de Leiria 4W 1D 1L
Academica 3W 0D 3L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

União de Leiria at home

Record (W-D-L)
2-0-1
Win rate
67%
Goals for / match
1.33
Goals against / match
0.67
Clean sheets
2 of 3
  • They have won 3 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
  • They average 2.0 goals per game on the road against 1.3 at home.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.

Academica away

Record (W-D-L)
2-0-1
Win rate
67%
Goals for / match
2.33
Goals against / match
1.67
Clean sheets
1 of 3
  • They have won 3 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
  • They average 2.3 goals per game on the road against 0.3 at home.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.

League matches this season before kick-off: União de Leiria at home only, Academica away only.

Expected lineups

União de Leiria lineup · 4-4-2

  1. 99 J. Odehnal
  2. 70 H. Masaki
  3. 16 Zé Pedro
  4. 44 Marcelo
  5. 68 Maga
  6. 17 Pablo Fernández
  7. 98 Ibrahima
  8. 6 E. Kouassi
  9. 21 Jaime
  10. 9 Juan Muñoz
  11. 7 Jose Adjugu

Bench: Marc Baró, Reko, Jair da Silva, Diogo Amado, D. Loppy, Christian Joel, S. Lukisa, Diogo Martins

Academica lineup · 4-3-3

  1. 12 Victor Braga
  2. 3 Ricardo Teixeira
  3. 2 Xavi
  4. 20 J. Sinisterra
  5. 5 Leandro Silva
  6. 25 L. Pierre
  7. 19 Afonso Rodrigues
  8. 92 A. Coundoul
  9. 8 K. Zohi

Bench: Nuno Macedo, Martim Tavares, I. Faure, Kauan, Marcos Paulo, Rui Gomes, T. Soares, H. Nunes, Ni, João Oliveira, Carlos Alves

União de Leiria vs Academica head-to-head

Last 7 meetings: União de Leiria 2 · draws 4 · Academica 1.

União de LeiriaDrawsAcademica
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2024-07-12Academica0-0União de LeiriaFriendlies Clubs
2023-01-15Academica1-3União de LeiriaLiga 3
2022-09-03União de Leiria1-1AcademicaLiga 3
2012-01-20Academica0-0União de LeiriaPrimeira Liga
2011-08-15União de Leiria1-2AcademicaPrimeira Liga
2011-03-04Academica0-0União de LeiriaPrimeira Liga
2010-10-01União de Leiria2-1AcademicaPrimeira Liga

Other Matchday 7 fixtures

Before and after this match