Penafiel vs AVS preview
In the Segunda Liga fixture between Penafiel and AVS, the model gives Penafiel a 48% chance to win, while AVS has a 24% chance. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, which aligns with Penafiel's expected goals of 1.55 compared to AVS's 1.10.
Both teams to score stands at 54%, indicating a decent chance of goals from both sides. However, Penafiel's recent form is strong with five wins and a draw in their last six matches, while AVS has only two wins in their last six. This contrast in form could affect the outcome, making a Penafiel win less certain.
Penafiel vs AVS: model vs market
| Source | Penafiel | Draw | AVS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 46% | 28% | 26% |
| Market | 49% | 28% | 23% |
| Published | 48% | 28% | 24% |
| Edge | -2% | 0% | +2% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.55 vs 1.10.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.00, recorded — the top price across the 8 books we record, each at its own last update.
Penafiel vs AVS odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Penafiel, 8 snapshots since 2026-10-03.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Penafiel | 1.87 | 1.89 | +0.01 |
| Draw | 3.30 | 3.27 | -0.02 |
| AVS | 4.10 | 3.90 | -0.20 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Penafiel and AVS expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.65
- Attack rating (Penafiel / AVS)
- 1.55 / 0.99
- Defence rating (Penafiel / AVS)
- 0.96 / 0.79
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Penafiel vs AVS score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Penafiel goals. Columns: AVS goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Penafiel vs AVS goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 54%
- No goals (0–0)
- 8%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Penafiel vs AVS
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Penafiel | 48% | 2.08 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.58 | |
| AVS | 24% | 4.15 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 49% | 2.02 |
| Under 2.5 | 51% | 1.98 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 54% | 1.86 |
| No | 46% | 2.17 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Penafiel or draw) | 76% | 1.32 |
| 12 (either side) | 72% | 1.39 | |
| X2 (draw or AVS) | 52% | 1.92 | |
| Handicap -1 | Penafiel win by 2+ | 24% | 4.13 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 4 |  |
200% first deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Penafiel and AVS recent form
Penafiel
5W 1D 0L
AVS
2W 3D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Penafiel at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-0-1
- Win rate
- 67%
- Goals for / match
- 2.00
- Goals against / match
- 0.67
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 3
- They have won 4 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 2.2 goals per match.
- 35% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
AVS away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-2-1
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 1.33
- Goals against / match
- 1.67
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 3
- They have won 1 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They average 1.3 goals per game on the road against 0.7 at home.
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Penafiel at home only, AVS away only.
Penafiel vs AVS head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Penafiel 0 · draws 0 · AVS 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-03-03 | Penafiel | 0-1 | AVS | Segunda Liga |
| 2023-10-09 | AVS | 1-0 | Penafiel | Segunda Liga |
Other Matchday 7 fixtures
- Tondela v Torreense — match page 2026-10-10
- Amarante vs Portimonense — team news & stats 2026-10-10
- Leixoes vs FC Porto B — team news & stats 2026-10-10
- Vizela vs Sporting CP B 2026-10-10
- Lusitânia Lourosa vs Chaves 2026-10-11
- Farense vs Feirense 2026-10-11
- União de Leiria v Academica — match page 2026-10-11
- Benfica B vs Felgueiras 1932 — team news & stats 2026-10-12