Updated

Segunda Liga · Matchday 7

Penafiel vs AVS

· Estadio Municipal 25 de Abril, Penafiel· Referee Jose Rodrigues

Full time1 – 2

Alin prediction was Penafiel to win

Cblended with market oddsMissed

Predicted score 1 – 0

10% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
PenafielDrawAVS

Penafiel vs AVS: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourcePenafielDrawAVS
Model46%28%26%
Market49%28%23%
Published48%28%24%
Edge-1%0%+1%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.55 vs 1.10.
  • Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Penafiel vs AVS odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Penafiel, 14 snapshots since 2026-10-03.

Opened 1.87Now 1.90 +0.03
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Penafiel1.871.90+0.03
Draw3.303.28-0.02
AVS4.103.95-0.15

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Penafiel and AVS expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.55Penafiel
1.10AVS
Total expected goals
2.65
Attack rating (Penafiel / AVS)
1.55 / 0.99
Defence rating (Penafiel / AVS)
0.96 / 0.79

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Penafiel vs AVS score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 8.3% 6.6% 4.3% 1.6% 0.6% 1 9.7% 13.3% 6.7% 2.4% 0.9% 2 8.4% 9.3% 5.1% 1.9% 0.7% 3 4.4% 4.8% 2.7% 1.0% 0.3% 4+ 2.4% 2.6% 1.4% 0.5% 0.2%

Rows: Penafiel goals. Columns: AVS goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Penafiel vs AVS goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 92%
Over 1.5 75%
Over 2.5 49%
Over 3.5 28%
Both teams to score
54%
No goals (0–0)
8%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Penafiel vs AVS

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Penafiel48%2.08
Draw28%3.57
AVS24%4.17
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.549%2.02
Under 2.551%1.98
Both teams to scoreYes54%1.86
No46%2.17
Double chance1X (Penafiel or draw)76%1.32
12 (either side)72%1.39
X2 (draw or AVS)52%1.92
Handicap -1Penafiel win by 2+24%4.13
Push (exactly one goal)22%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Penafiel and AVS recent form

Penafiel 5W 1D 0L
AVS 2W 3D 1L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Penafiel at home

Record (W-D-L)
2-0-1
Win rate
67%
Goals for / match
2.00
Goals against / match
0.67
Clean sheets
1 of 3
  • They have won 4 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 2.2 goals per match.
  • 35% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

AVS away

Record (W-D-L)
0-2-1
Win rate
0%
Goals for / match
1.33
Goals against / match
1.67
Clean sheets
0 of 3
  • They have won 1 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
  • They average 1.3 goals per game on the road against 0.7 at home.
  • 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: Penafiel at home only, AVS away only.

Expected lineups

Penafiel lineup · 3-4-3

  1. 1 Miguel Oliveira
  2. 2 Iano Imbene
  3. 6 Adrián Pica
  4. 5 Jaime Sánchez
  5. 7 Douglas Borel
  6. 8 Àlex Carbonell
  7. 21 Pedro Sá
  8. 27 Gonçalo Negrão
  9. 10 Davo
  10. 9 Max Svensson
  11. 17 João Pinto

Bench: Cláudio Silva, João Miguel, Eric Puerto, Jorge Meré, Ricardo Schutte, M. Ramon, Francisco Varela, Claudio

AVS lineup · 4-3-3

  1. 1 Dani Rebollo
  2. 12 L. Rivas
  3. 26 Bernardo Conde
  4. 3 L. Rosić
  5. 97 Matheus Pivô
  6. 80 Hiago Santos
  7. 88 F. Almeida
  8. 70 Roni
  9. 30 Talles Wander
  10. 9 Rodrigo Pinho

Bench: Davi Schuindt, Carlos Ponck, Guilherme Neiva, Jorge Meireles, R. N'do, Diogo Brasido, Raul, André Sousa, P. Pimentel

Penafiel vs AVS head-to-head

Last 2 meetings: Penafiel 0 · draws 0 · AVS 2.

PenafielDrawsAVS
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2024-03-03Penafiel0-1AVSSegunda Liga
2023-10-09AVS1-0PenafielSegunda Liga

Other Matchday 7 fixtures

Before and after this match