AVS vs Moreirense Prediction & Betting Tips 17/10/2026

AVS vs Moreirense preview

AVS faces Moreirense with a 54% chance of winning compared to Moreirense's 17%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, which occurs 15% of the time in our model. AVS has an expected goals figure of 1.47, while Moreirense sits at 0.72.

However, the confidence grade is C, indicating uncertainty. Both teams to score stands at 41%, suggesting a possibility of a low-scoring match. Recent form shows AVS with two draws and two wins in their last six games, while Moreirense has struggled, recording only one win in their last six. This inconsistency could affect the outcome.

AVS vs Moreirense: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	AVS	Draw	Moreirense
Model	56%	28%	16%
Market	—	—	—
Published	56%	28%	16%
Edge	—	—	—

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.53 vs 0.69.
Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

AVS and Moreirense expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.53AVS

0.69Moreirense

Total expected goals: 2.22
Attack rating (AVS / Moreirense): 0.87 / 0.68
Defence rating (AVS / Moreirense): 0.67 / 1.02

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

AVS vs Moreirense score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 12.0% 6.3% 2.6% 0.6% 0.1% 1 15.4% 12.6% 4.0% 0.9% 0.2% 2 12.7% 8.8% 3.0% 0.7% 0.1% 3 6.5% 4.5% 1.5% 0.4% 0.1% 4+ 3.5% 2.4% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0%

Rows: AVS goals. Columns: Moreirense goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

AVS vs Moreirense goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 88%

Over 1.5 66%

Over 2.5 38%

Over 3.5 19%

Both teams to score: 40%
No goals (0–0): 12%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for AVS vs Moreirense

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	AVS	56%	1.77
	Draw	28%	3.57
	Moreirense	16%	6.41
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	38%	2.61
	Under 2.5	62%	1.62
Both teams to score	Yes	40%	2.48
	No	60%	1.67
Double chance	1X (AVS or draw)	84%	1.18
	12 (either side)	72%	1.39
	X2 (draw or Moreirense)	44%	2.29
Handicap -1	AVS win by 2+	31%	3.28
	Push (exactly one goal)	26%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

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Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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