Farense vs AD Marco 09 Prediction & Betting Tips 17/10/2026

Farense vs AD Marco 09 preview

In the Taça de Portugal, Farense faces AD Marco 09 with a 48% chance of winning compared to AD Marco 09's 17%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, which aligns with expected goals of 1.11 for Farense and 0.56 for AD Marco 09. The recent form shows Farense with two wins in their last three matches, while AD Marco 09 has won four out of five.

However, the predictions could be off if AD Marco 09's recent form continues to shine. Both teams to score has a low probability of 30%, and Over 2.5 goals sits at just 23%. This suggests that while Farense is favored, an unexpected performance from AD Marco 09 could change the outcome.

Farense vs AD Marco 09: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Farense	Draw	AD Marco 09
Model	48%	35%	17%
Market	—	—	—
Published	48%	35%	17%
Edge	—	—	—

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.11 vs 0.56.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

Farense and AD Marco 09 expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.11Farense

0.56AD Marco 09

Total expected goals: 1.67
Attack rating (Farense / AD Marco 09): 0.94 / 0.75
Defence rating (Farense / AD Marco 09): 0.50 / 0.68

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Farense vs AD Marco 09 score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 20.0% 9.3% 2.9% 0.5% 0.1% 1 19.8% 12.8% 3.3% 0.6% 0.1% 2 11.6% 6.5% 1.8% 0.3% 0.1% 3 4.3% 2.4% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 4+ 1.5% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%

Rows: Farense goals. Columns: AD Marco 09 goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Farense vs AD Marco 09 goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 80%

Over 1.5 51%

Over 2.5 23%

Over 3.5 9%

Both teams to score: 30%
No goals (0–0): 20%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Farense vs AD Marco 09

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Farense	48%	2.09
	Draw	35%	2.87
	AD Marco 09	17%	5.79
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	23%	4.27
	Under 2.5	77%	1.31
Both teams to score	Yes	30%	3.35
	No	70%	1.43
Double chance	1X (Farense or draw)	83%	1.21
	12 (either side)	65%	1.53
	X2 (draw or AD Marco 09)	52%	1.92
Handicap -1	Farense win by 2+	21%	4.77
	Push (exactly one goal)	27%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

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Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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