Atlético CP vs Vizela Prediction & Betting Tips 17/10/2026

Atlético CP vs Vizela preview

In the Taça de Portugal, Atlético CP faces Vizela with a 50% chance of winning compared to Vizela's 19%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, which reflects Atlético CP's expected goals of 1.32 against Vizela's 0.73.

However, the prediction could change if Vizela manages to score, as both teams to score has a 39% likelihood. Additionally, the chance of Over 2.5 goals stands at 34%, indicating that a low-scoring match is more probable. Recent form shows Atlético CP winning four of their last five matches, while Vizela has had mixed results with three wins and two draws in their last five games.

Atlético CP vs Vizela: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Atlético CP	Draw	Vizela
Model	50%	31%	19%
Market	—	—	—
Published	50%	31%	19%
Edge	—	—	—

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.32 vs 0.73.
Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 5 vs 3 for the opposition.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

Atlético CP and Vizela expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.32Atlético CP

0.73Vizela

Total expected goals: 2.05
Attack rating (Atlético CP / Vizela): 1.23 / 0.69
Defence rating (Atlético CP / Vizela): 0.70 / 0.62

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Atlético CP vs Vizela score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 14.1% 8.2% 3.4% 0.8% 0.2% 1 15.8% 13.6% 4.5% 1.1% 0.2% 2 11.2% 8.2% 3.0% 0.7% 0.2% 3 4.9% 3.6% 1.3% 0.3% 0.1% 4+ 2.2% 1.6% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0%

Rows: Atlético CP goals. Columns: Vizela goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Atlético CP vs Vizela goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 86%

Over 1.5 62%

Over 2.5 34%

Over 3.5 15%

Both teams to score: 39%
No goals (0–0): 14%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Atlético CP vs Vizela

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Atlético CP	50%	2.02
	Draw	31%	3.22
	Vizela	19%	5.16
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	34%	2.97
	Under 2.5	66%	1.51
Both teams to score	Yes	39%	2.55
	No	61%	1.64
Double chance	1X (Atlético CP or draw)	81%	1.24
	12 (either side)	69%	1.45
	X2 (draw or Vizela)	50%	1.98
Handicap -1	Atlético CP win by 2+	24%	4.14
	Push (exactly one goal)	25%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

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Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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