União de Leiria vs Bragança Prediction & Betting Tips 17/10/2026

União de Leiria vs Bragança preview

In the Taça de Portugal match between União de Leiria and Bragança, the 1X2 probabilities show Bragança at 53%, while União de Leiria stands at 23%. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, with both teams to score and Over 2.5 goals each at 61%.

Bragança's expected goals are 1.92 compared to União de Leiria's 1.21, indicating a stronger attacking potential. However, União de Leiria's recent form includes four wins in their last six matches, which could influence the outcome. The confidence grade is C, suggesting uncertainty in the predictions.

União de Leiria vs Bragança: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	União de Leiria	Draw	Bragança
Model	23%	24%	53%
Market	—	—	—
Published	23%	24%	53%
Edge	—	—	—

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.92 vs 1.21.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

União de Leiria and Bragança expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.21União de Leiria

1.92Bragança

Total expected goals: 3.14
Attack rating (União de Leiria / Bragança): 1.00 / 1.62
Defence rating (União de Leiria / Bragança): 0.79 / 0.70

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

União de Leiria vs Bragança score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 5.4% 7.3% 8.0% 5.2% 3.8% 1 4.3% 11.2% 9.7% 6.2% 4.7% 2 3.2% 6.1% 5.9% 3.8% 2.8% 3 1.3% 2.5% 2.4% 1.5% 1.1% 4+ 0.5% 1.0% 0.9% 0.6% 0.5%

Rows: União de Leiria goals. Columns: Bragança goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

União de Leiria vs Bragança goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 95%

Over 1.5 83%

Over 2.5 61%

Over 3.5 38%

Both teams to score: 61%
No goals (0–0): 5%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for União de Leiria vs Bragança

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	União de Leiria	23%	4.37
	Draw	24%	4.13
	Bragança	53%	1.89
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	61%	1.65
	Under 2.5	39%	2.54
Both teams to score	Yes	61%	1.64
	No	39%	2.56
Double chance	1X (União de Leiria or draw)	47%	2.12
	12 (either side)	76%	1.32
	X2 (draw or Bragança)	77%	1.30
Handicap -1	Bragança win by 2+	31%	3.20
	Push (exactly one goal)	22%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

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Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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