Penafiel vs Leça Prediction & Betting Tips 17/10/2026

Penafiel vs Leça preview

In the Taça de Portugal, Penafiel faces Leça with 1X2 probabilities of Penafiel at 55%, Leça at 20%, and a draw at 25%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, with a 10% chance according to our model. Penafiel's expected goals stand at 1.87, while Leça's is 1.06, suggesting Penafiel is favored to score more.

Both teams to score and Over 2.5 goals both have a 56% chance. Penafiel's recent form shows five wins and a draw, while Leça has one win and one loss. The confidence grade for this match is C, indicating potential uncertainty in the outcome, which could affect the predicted scoreline.

Penafiel vs Leça: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Penafiel	Draw	Leça
Model	52%	25%	23%
Market	—	—	—
Published	52%	25%	23%
Edge	—	—	—

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.81 vs 1.13.
Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

Penafiel and Leça expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.81Penafiel

1.13Leça

Total expected goals: 2.94
Attack rating (Penafiel / Leça): 1.19 / 0.90
Defence rating (Penafiel / Leça): 0.84 / 0.88

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Penafiel vs Leça score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 6.4% 4.9% 3.4% 1.3% 0.5% 1 8.5% 11.9% 6.1% 2.3% 0.8% 2 8.7% 9.8% 5.5% 2.1% 0.8% 3 5.2% 5.9% 3.3% 1.3% 0.5% 4+ 3.6% 4.0% 2.3% 0.9% 0.3%

Rows: Penafiel goals. Columns: Leça goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Penafiel vs Leça goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 94%

Over 1.5 80%

Over 2.5 56%

Over 3.5 34%

Both teams to score: 58%
No goals (0–0): 6%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Penafiel vs Leça

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Penafiel	52%	1.92
	Draw	25%	3.96
	Leça	23%	4.43
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	56%	1.78
	Under 2.5	44%	2.29
Both teams to score	Yes	58%	1.73
	No	42%	2.36
Double chance	1X (Penafiel or draw)	77%	1.29
	12 (either side)	75%	1.34
	X2 (draw or Leça)	48%	2.09
Handicap -1	Penafiel win by 2+	30%	3.34
	Push (exactly one goal)	22%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

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Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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