Louletano vs Rio Ave preview
In the Taça de Portugal, Louletano faces Rio Ave with a 72% chance of winning, compared to Rio Ave's 9%. The most likely scoreline is 2-0, which aligns with Louletano's expected goals of 2.32 against Rio Ave's 0.75. Louletano's recent form shows two wins followed by a loss, while Rio Ave has struggled with four losses in their last six matches.
Despite the strong numbers for Louletano, there's a 19% chance of a draw and a 48% probability that both teams will score. If Rio Ave can improve their performance, they might challenge Louletano's dominance. Additionally, the confidence grade is C, indicating some uncertainty in the predictions.
Louletano vs Rio Ave: model vs market
| Source | Louletano | Draw | Rio Ave |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 72% | 19% | 9% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 72% | 19% | 9% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.32 vs 0.75.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 4 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Louletano and Rio Ave expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.07
- Attack rating (Louletano / Rio Ave)
- 1.14 / 0.65
- Defence rating (Louletano / Rio Ave)
- 0.77 / 1.18
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Louletano vs Rio Ave score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Louletano goals. Columns: Rio Ave goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Louletano vs Rio Ave goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 48%
- No goals (0–0)
- 5%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Louletano vs Rio Ave
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Louletano | 72% | 1.39 |
| Draw | 19% | 5.39 | |
| Rio Ave | 9% | 10.55 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 59% | 1.69 |
| Under 2.5 | 41% | 2.45 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 48% | 2.07 |
| No | 52% | 1.93 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Louletano or draw) | 91% | 1.10 |
| 12 (either side) | 81% | 1.23 | |
| X2 (draw or Rio Ave) | 28% | 3.57 | |
| Handicap -1 | Louletano win by 2+ | 50% | 2.02 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 2 |  |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Louletano and Rio Ave recent form
Louletano
3W 0D 1L
Rio Ave
1W 1D 4L
Last 4 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Other Round of 64 fixtures
- Farense vs AD Marco 09 — team news & stats 2026-10-17
- Sanjoanense vs Nacional 2026-10-17
- Vianense v Leixoes — match page 2026-10-17
- Atlético CP vs Vizela 2026-10-17
- Fazendense v Estrela — match page 2026-10-17
- União de Leiria v Bragança — match page 2026-10-17
- Penafiel vs Leça 2026-10-17
- Academica v Amarante — match page 2026-10-17
Before and after this match
- Rio Ave, previous: Rio Ave vs Nacional prediction