Rio Ave vs Nacional Prediction & Betting Tips 11/10/2026

Rio Ave vs Nacional: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Rio Ave	Draw	Nacional
Model	37%	28%	34%
Market	42%	29%	29%
Published	41%	29%	30%
Edge	-1%	0%	+1%

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Rio Ave vs Nacional odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Rio Ave, 13 snapshots since 2026-10-05.

Opened 2.25Now 2.25 -0.00

Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
Selection	First	Latest	Move
Rio Ave	2.25	2.25	-0.00
Draw	3.25	3.30	+0.05
Nacional	3.19	3.26	+0.07

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Rio Ave and Nacional expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.37Rio Ave

1.30Nacional

Total expected goals: 2.66
Attack rating (Rio Ave / Nacional): 0.73 / 0.78
Defence rating (Rio Ave / Nacional): 1.37 / 1.28

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Rio Ave vs Nacional score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 8.2% 7.8% 5.9% 2.5% 1.1% 1 8.3% 13.6% 8.0% 3.5% 1.5% 2 6.5% 8.4% 5.5% 2.4% 1.0% 3 3.0% 3.8% 2.5% 1.1% 0.5% 4+ 1.4% 1.8% 1.1% 0.5% 0.2%

Rows: Rio Ave goals. Columns: Nacional goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Rio Ave vs Nacional goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 92%

Over 1.5 76%

Over 2.5 50%

Over 3.5 28%

Both teams to score: 55%
No goals (0–0): 8%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Rio Ave vs Nacional

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Rio Ave	41%	2.44
	Draw	29%	3.49
	Nacional	30%	3.30
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	50%	2.01
	Under 2.5	50%	1.99
Both teams to score	Yes	55%	1.81
	No	45%	2.24
Double chance	1X (Rio Ave or draw)	70%	1.44
	12 (either side)	71%	1.40
	X2 (draw or Nacional)	59%	1.69
Handicap -1	Rio Ave win by 2+	18%	5.64
	Push (exactly one goal)	20%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Rio Ave and Nacional recent form

Rio Ave 1W 1D 4L

Nacional 1W 0D 5L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Rio Ave at home

Record (W-D-L): 0-1-2
Win rate: 0%
Goals for / match: 1.00
Goals against / match: 3.00
Clean sheets: 0 of 3

They have won 1 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 0.7 goals per match.
They average 1.0 goals per game at home against 0.5 on the road.
They have failed to score in 5 of 7 matches.
70% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Nacional away

Record (W-D-L): 0-1-2
Win rate: 0%
Goals for / match: 0.67
Goals against / match: 1.67
Clean sheets: 0 of 3

They have won 1 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
They average 1.2 goals per game at home against 0.7 on the road.
They have failed to score in 3 of 7 matches.

League matches this season before kick-off: Rio Ave at home only, Nacional away only.

Expected lineups

Rio Ave lineup · 4-2-3-1

32 Vitor Hugo
17 M. Vrousai
39 Gustavo Mancha
54 G. Liavas
20 João Tomé
19 M. Sellouki
5 A. Ntoi
7 Diogo Bezerra
79 M. Patricio
80 S. Clemmensen
11 J. Blesa

Bench: S. Garcia, Ryan Guilherme, Tamble Monteiro, F. Petrasso, T. Medina, R. Galčík, T. Nikitscher, Caike, A. Wenck, D. Špikić, Diogo Nascimento, E. van der Gouw

Nacional lineup · 4-2-3-1

1 Renato Bellucci
21 W. Kokolo
38 Zé Vitor
33 Francisco Gonçalves
88 Deivison
31 D. Dongmo
15 C. Labidi
12 Song Min-Kyu
20 Matchoi Djaló
10 Daniel Júnior
29 N. Kader

Bench: Daniel Isai de la Cruz de la Cruz, M. Jensen, Miguel Baeza, A. Obando, S. Gavriel, João Gonçalves, Ivanildo Fernandes, F. Nava, Joel da Silva

Rio Ave vs Nacional head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: Rio Ave 4 · draws 4 · Nacional 2.

40% 40% 20%

Rio AveDrawsNacional

Previous meetings
Date	Home	Score	Away	Competition
2026-01-25	Nacional	4-0	Rio Ave	Primeira Liga
2025-08-17	Rio Ave	1-1	Nacional	Primeira Liga
2025-05-10	Nacional	3-3	Rio Ave	Primeira Liga
2024-12-29	Rio Ave	2-1	Nacional	Primeira Liga
2024-07-31	Rio Ave	1-1	Nacional	Friendlies Clubs
2022-04-10	Nacional	2-0	Rio Ave	Segunda Liga
2021-11-28	Rio Ave	1-0	Nacional	Segunda Liga
2021-05-19	Nacional	1-2	Rio Ave	Primeira Liga
2021-02-05	Rio Ave	0-0	Nacional	Primeira Liga
2019-03-17	Nacional	0-1	Rio Ave	Primeira Liga

Other Matchday 8 fixtures

Moreirense v GIL Vicente — match page 2026-10-09
SC Braga vs Sporting CP — team news & stats 2026-10-09
Maritimo vs FC Porto 2026-10-10
Academico Viseu v Estoril — match page 2026-10-10
Casa Pia v Santa Clara — match page 2026-10-10
Benfica vs Vitória SC — team news & stats 2026-10-11
Arouca vs Estrela — team news & stats 2026-10-11
Famalicao vs Alverca 2026-10-12

Before and after this match

Rio Ave, next: Louletano – Rio Ave, 2026-10-17
Nacional, next: Sanjoanense vs Nacional: odds and pick