Rio Ave vs Nacional: model vs market
| Source | Rio Ave | Draw | Nacional |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 38% | 28% | 34% |
| Market | 42% | 29% | 29% |
| Published | 41% | 29% | 31% |
| Edge | -4% | 0% | +4% |
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.34, recorded — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update.
Rio Ave vs Nacional odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Rio Ave, 4 snapshots since 2026-10-05.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rio Ave | 2.25 | 2.25 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 3.25 | 3.25 | +0.00 |
| Nacional | 3.19 | 3.19 | +0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Rio Ave and Nacional expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.66
- Attack rating (Rio Ave / Nacional)
- 0.73 / 0.78
- Defence rating (Rio Ave / Nacional)
- 1.36 / 1.28
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Rio Ave vs Nacional score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Rio Ave goals. Columns: Nacional goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Rio Ave vs Nacional goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 55%
- No goals (0–0)
- 8%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Rio Ave vs Nacional
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Rio Ave | 41% | 2.46 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.47 | |
| Nacional | 31% | 3.28 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 50% | 2.01 |
| Under 2.5 | 50% | 1.99 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 55% | 1.81 |
| No | 45% | 2.24 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Rio Ave or draw) | 69% | 1.44 |
| 12 (either side) | 71% | 1.40 | |
| X2 (draw or Nacional) | 59% | 1.69 | |
| Handicap -1 | Rio Ave win by 2+ | 18% | 5.58 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 4 |  |
200% first deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Rio Ave and Nacional recent form
Rio Ave
1W 1D 4L
Nacional
1W 0D 5L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Rio Ave at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-1-2
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 3.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 3
- They have won 1 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 6 matches.
Nacional away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-1-2
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.67
- Goals against / match
- 1.67
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 3
- They have won 1 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They average 1.7 goals per game at home against 0.7 on the road.
League matches this season before kick-off: Rio Ave at home only, Nacional away only.
Rio Ave vs Nacional head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Rio Ave 0 · draws 1 · Nacional 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-25 | Nacional | 4-0 | Rio Ave | Primeira Liga |
| 2025-08-17 | Rio Ave | 1-1 | Nacional | Primeira Liga |
Other Matchday 8 fixtures
- Moreirense v GIL Vicente — match page 2026-10-09
- SC Braga vs Sporting CP — team news & stats 2026-10-09
- Casa Pia v Santa Clara — match page 2026-10-10
- Maritimo vs FC Porto 2026-10-10
- Academico Viseu v Estoril — match page 2026-10-10
- Benfica vs Vitória SC — team news & stats 2026-10-11
- Arouca vs Estrela — team news & stats 2026-10-11
- Famalicao vs Alverca 2026-10-12