Updated

Primeira Liga · Matchday 8

Famalicao vs Alverca

· Estadio Municipal 22 de Junho, Vila Nova de Famalicao· Referee Sergio Jose Dos Santos Guelho

Full time1 – 4

Alin prediction was Famalicao to win

Cblended with market oddsMissed

Predicted score 1 – 0

13% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
FamalicaoDrawAlverca

Famalicao vs Alverca: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceFamalicaoDrawAlverca
Model51%28%20%
Market51%28%21%
Published51%28%21%
Edge0%0%0%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.51 vs 0.86.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Famalicao vs Alverca odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Famalicao, 14 snapshots since 2026-10-06.

Opened 1.80Now 1.85 +0.05
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Famalicao1.801.85+0.05
Draw3.403.37-0.03
Alverca4.254.39+0.14

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Famalicao and Alverca expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.51Famalicao
0.86Alverca
Total expected goals
2.37
Attack rating (Famalicao / Alverca)
1.02 / 0.94
Defence rating (Famalicao / Alverca)
0.75 / 1.02

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Famalicao vs Alverca score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 10.6% 6.8% 3.5% 1.0% 0.3% 1 12.9% 13.3% 5.2% 1.5% 0.4% 2 10.7% 9.2% 3.9% 1.1% 0.3% 3 5.4% 4.6% 2.0% 0.6% 0.1% 4+ 2.8% 2.4% 1.0% 0.3% 0.1%

Rows: Famalicao goals. Columns: Alverca goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Famalicao vs Alverca goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 89%
Over 1.5 70%
Over 2.5 42%
Over 3.5 21%
Both teams to score
46%
No goals (0–0)
11%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Famalicao vs Alverca

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Famalicao51%1.97
Draw28%3.57
Alverca21%4.74
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.542%2.37
Under 2.558%1.73
Both teams to scoreYes46%2.17
No54%1.86
Double chance1X (Famalicao or draw)79%1.27
12 (either side)72%1.39
X2 (draw or Alverca)49%2.03
Handicap -1Famalicao win by 2+27%3.69
Push (exactly one goal)24%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Famalicao and Alverca recent form

Famalicao 1W 3D 2L
Alverca 2W 2D 2L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Famalicao at home

Record (W-D-L)
0-2-1
Win rate
0%
Goals for / match
0.67
Goals against / match
1.00
Clean sheets
1 of 3
  • They have won 1 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
  • They average 1.8 goals per game on the road against 0.7 at home.
  • 47% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Alverca away

Record (W-D-L)
1-0-2
Win rate
33%
Goals for / match
1.33
Goals against / match
2.00
Clean sheets
0 of 3
  • They have won 2 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.

League matches this season before kick-off: Famalicao at home only, Alverca away only.

Expected lineups

Famalicao lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 25 L. Carević
  2. 28 Pedro Francisco
  3. 15 Víctor Rofino
  4. 36 M. Mattara
  5. 17 Rodrigo Pinheiro
  6. 21 Tamás Szücs
  7. 8 Marcos Peña
  8. 7 Sorriso
  9. 14 Mathias De Amorim
  10. 23 Gil Dias
  11. 70 G. Koutsias

Bench: I. Zlobin, Gustavo Garcia, L. Realpe, T. van de Looi, U. Abubakar, Pedro Santos, Paulo Moreira, Gabriel, Mathis Jangeal, V. Serafimović, P. Salas

Alverca lineup · 3-4-3

  1. 31 Matheus Mendes
  2. 12 I. James
  3. 21 Sergi Gómez
  4. 14 S. Baseya
  5. 55 Francisco Chissumba
  6. 6 D. Gui
  7. 35 Rayan
  8. 20 Diogo Filipe Spencer Marques
  9. 22 Figueiredo
  10. 19 D. Camara
  11. 10 Chiquinho

Bench: Zoubdi, Y. Bojang, André Vidigal, Vasco Moreira, Vivaldo Semedo, C. Nuozzi, S. Merheg, Matheus França, Toni Tamarit, Jhonatan, Zé Rafael

Famalicao vs Alverca head-to-head

Last 3 meetings: Famalicao 2 · draws 0 · Alverca 1.

FamalicaoDrawsAlverca
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-05-16Famalicao1-0AlvercaPrimeira Liga
2026-01-04Alverca1-0FamalicaoPrimeira Liga
2021-11-20Alverca1-2FamalicaoTaça de Portugal

Other Matchday 8 fixtures

Before and after this match