Paredes vs Famalicao Prediction & Betting Tips 18/10/2026

Paredes vs Famalicao preview

In the Taça de Portugal, Paredes faces Famalicao with 41% probabilities for a Paredes win and a most likely scoreline of 2-1 at 9%. Both teams to score stands at 56%, while Over 2.5 goals is predicted at 51%. Paredes has a slight edge in expected goals with 1.47 compared to Famalicao's 1.24.

However, Famalicao's recent form shows a mixed bag with 1 win, 3 draws, and 2 losses in their last 6 matches. If they can improve their attacking output or if Paredes underperforms, the match could yield a different outcome than expected. The confidence grade for this prediction is C, indicating a moderate level of certainty.

Paredes vs Famalicao: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Paredes	Draw	Famalicao
Model	41%	28%	31%
Market	—	—	—
Published	41%	28%	31%
Edge	—	—	—

Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 3 vs 1 for the opposition.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

Paredes and Famalicao expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.47Paredes

1.24Famalicao

Total expected goals: 2.71
Attack rating (Paredes / Famalicao): 1.29 / 0.89
Defence rating (Paredes / Famalicao): 0.93 / 0.66

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Paredes vs Famalicao score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 7.9% 7.0% 5.1% 2.1% 0.8% 1 8.6% 13.3% 7.5% 3.1% 1.2% 2 7.2% 8.9% 5.5% 2.3% 0.9% 3 3.6% 4.4% 2.7% 1.1% 0.5% 4+ 1.8% 2.2% 1.4% 0.6% 0.2%

Rows: Paredes goals. Columns: Famalicao goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Paredes vs Famalicao goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 92%

Over 1.5 77%

Over 2.5 51%

Over 3.5 29%

Both teams to score: 56%
No goals (0–0): 8%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Paredes vs Famalicao

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Paredes	41%	2.41
	Draw	28%	3.57
	Famalicao	31%	3.27
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	51%	1.97
	Under 2.5	49%	2.03
Both teams to score	Yes	56%	1.79
	No	44%	2.27
Double chance	1X (Paredes or draw)	69%	1.44
	12 (either side)	72%	1.39
	X2 (draw or Famalicao)	59%	1.71
Handicap -1	Paredes win by 2+	21%	4.81
	Push (exactly one goal)	21%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

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Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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