Mafra vs Santa Clara Prediction & Betting Tips 18/10/2026

Mafra vs Santa Clara preview

In the Taça de Portugal match between Mafra and Santa Clara, the 1X2 probabilities show Santa Clara at 43%, while Mafra stands at 27%. The most likely scoreline is 0-1, with an 11% chance. This suggests a tight match, but the outcome could change if Mafra improves their recent form, which includes a draw and a loss in their last two games.

The expected goals indicate Mafra at 1.05 and Santa Clara at 1.38, which supports the prediction of a low-scoring game. The model also shows a 44% chance for Over 2.5 goals and a 50% probability for both teams to score. If either team fails to convert their chances, the match could end with fewer goals than anticipated.

Mafra vs Santa Clara: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Mafra	Draw	Santa Clara
Model	27%	30%	43%
Market	—	—	—
Published	27%	30%	43%
Edge	—	—	—

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.38 vs 1.05.
Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

Mafra and Santa Clara expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.05Mafra

1.38Santa Clara

Total expected goals: 2.44
Attack rating (Mafra / Santa Clara): 1.03 / 0.90
Defence rating (Mafra / Santa Clara): 1.02 / 0.59

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Mafra vs Santa Clara score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 10.0% 10.8% 8.4% 3.9% 1.8% 1 7.9% 14.0% 8.8% 4.1% 1.9% 2 4.9% 6.7% 4.6% 2.1% 1.0% 3 1.7% 2.4% 1.6% 0.8% 0.4% 4+ 0.6% 0.8% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1%

Rows: Mafra goals. Columns: Santa Clara goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Mafra vs Santa Clara goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 90%

Over 1.5 71%

Over 2.5 44%

Over 3.5 23%

Both teams to score: 50%
No goals (0–0): 10%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Mafra vs Santa Clara

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Mafra	27%	3.66
	Draw	30%	3.39
	Santa Clara	43%	2.32
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	44%	2.27
	Under 2.5	56%	1.79
Both teams to score	Yes	50%	2.00
	No	50%	2.00
Double chance	1X (Mafra or draw)	57%	1.76
	12 (either side)	70%	1.42
	X2 (draw or Santa Clara)	73%	1.38
Handicap -1	Santa Clara win by 2+	21%	4.74
	Push (exactly one goal)	22%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

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