Salgueiros vs Estoril Prediction & Betting Tips 18/10/2026

Salgueiros vs Estoril preview

In the Taça de Portugal match between Salgueiros and Estoril, the 1X2 probabilities show Salgueiros at 63%, Estoril at 13%, and a draw at 23%. The most likely scoreline is 2-0, with a 12% chance of occurring. Salgueiros have a strong expected goals figure of 1.92, while Estoril sits at 0.78, indicating a significant attacking advantage for Salgueiros.

However, the match could see different outcomes if Estoril improves their recent form, which has seen them lose 6 matches in a row. The chances of Over 2.5 goals stand at 51%, and both teams to score is at 47%. This suggests that while Salgueiros are favored, Estoril's potential for a surprise performance could impact the final result.

Salgueiros vs Estoril: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Salgueiros	Draw	Estoril
Model	63%	23%	13%
Market	—	—	—
Published	63%	23%	13%
Edge	—	—	—

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.92 vs 0.78.
Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 4 vs 0 for the opposition.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

Salgueiros and Estoril expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.92Salgueiros

0.78Estoril

Total expected goals: 2.70
Attack rating (Salgueiros / Estoril): 1.14 / 0.52
Defence rating (Salgueiros / Estoril): 1.00 / 0.97

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Salgueiros vs Estoril score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 7.7% 4.2% 2.0% 0.5% 0.1% 1 11.9% 11.1% 3.9% 1.0% 0.2% 2 12.4% 9.7% 3.8% 1.0% 0.2% 3 7.9% 6.2% 2.4% 0.6% 0.1% 4+ 5.9% 4.6% 1.8% 0.5% 0.1%

Rows: Salgueiros goals. Columns: Estoril goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Salgueiros vs Estoril goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 92%

Over 1.5 76%

Over 2.5 51%

Over 3.5 29%

Both teams to score: 47%
No goals (0–0): 8%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Salgueiros vs Estoril

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Salgueiros	63%	1.58
	Draw	23%	4.30
	Estoril	13%	7.42
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	51%	1.97
	Under 2.5	49%	2.03
Both teams to score	Yes	47%	2.12
	No	53%	1.90
Double chance	1X (Salgueiros or draw)	87%	1.16
	12 (either side)	77%	1.30
	X2 (draw or Estoril)	37%	2.72
Handicap -1	Salgueiros win by 2+	39%	2.57
	Push (exactly one goal)	24%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

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Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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